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Algoritma Backpropagation Neural Network dalam Memprediksi Harga Komoditi Tanaman Karet

机译:算法背部化神经网络预测橡胶厂商品价格

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摘要

Rubber plantation sector is one of the leading commodities in East Kalimantan Province contributing greatly to non-oil and gas exports. Currently, the price of rubber in the world is increasingly competitive. The aim of this research is to predict the rubber prices as a reference for the government and companies in making policies and preparing work plans. Data of 60 months during the period of 2014-2018 taken from Plantation office of East Kalimantan Province has been analyzed using Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) algorithm in predicting rubber prices. Based on the testing results, parameters of the BPNN algorithm with ratio of 4: 1, architectural models 5-10-10-10-1, trainlm learning function, learning rate of 0.5, error tolerance of 0.01, and epoch of 1000 have gained good accuracy with a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00015464. The results showed that the BPNN algorithm can be used as an alternative method in forecasting.
机译:橡胶种植园部门是东卡马丹省的主要商品之一,对非石油和天然气出口提供了极大的贡献。目前,世界上橡胶价格越来越竞争。本研究的目的是预测橡胶价格作为政府和公司在制定政策和准备工作计划方面的参考。 2014 - 2018年期间的60个月的数据通过预测橡胶价格的反向神经网络(BPNN)算法进行了分析了从东康马坦省的植物办公室。基于测试结果,BPNN算法的比例为4:1,架构模型5-10-10-10-1,TRASTLM学习功能,0.5的学习率,0.01的误差容差和1000的时期具有0.00015464的平均方误差(MSE)的良好准确性。结果表明,BPNN算法可以用作预测中的替代方法。

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