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Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Soil Erosion in the Xihe River Basin, China

机译：气候变化与人类活动对中国西河流域土壤侵蚀的影响

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Climate change and human activities are the major factors affecting runoff and sediment load. We analyzed the inter-annual variation trends of the annual rainfall, air temperature, runoff and sediment load in the Xihe River Basin from 1969–2015. Pettitt’s test and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to detect sudden changes in hydro-meteorological variables and simulate the basin hydrological cycle, respectively. According to the simulation results, we explored spatial distribution of soil erosion in the watershed by utilizing ArcGIS10.0, analyzed the average soil erosion modulus by different types of land use, and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment load in changes. The results showed that: (1) From 1969–2015, both rainfall and air temperature increased, and air temperature increased significantly (p < 0.01) at 0.326 °C/10 a (annual). Runoff and sediment load decreased, and sediment load decreased significantly (p < 0.01) at 1.63 × 105 t/10 a. In 1988, air temperature experienced a sudden increased and sediment load decreased. (2) For runoff, R2 and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (Ens) were 0.92 and 0.91 during the calibration period and 0.90 and 0.87 during the validation period, for sediment load, R2 and Ens were 0.60 and 0.55 during the calibration period and 0.70 and 0.69 during the validation period, meeting the model’s applicability requirements. (3) Soil erosion was worse in the upper basin than other regions, and highest in cultivated land. Climate change exacerbates runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of −26.54% and −8.8%, respectively. Human activities decreased runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of 126.54% and 108.8% respectively. The variation of runoff and sediment load in the Xihe River Basin is largely caused by human activities.
机译：气候变化和人类活动是影响径流泥沙的主要因素。我们从1969年至2015年分析了年降水量，气温，径流泥沙在西河流域的年际变化趋势。 Pettitt的试验和土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型被用来检测水文气象变量的突然变化和模拟流域水循环，分别。根据模拟结果，我们探讨了水土流失的空间分布，利用ArcGIS10.0的分水岭，分析了不同土地利用类型的平均土壤侵蚀模数，并量化气候变化的贡献和人类活动对水沙在变化。结果表明：（1）从1969至2015年，既降雨和空气温度的升高，和空气温度在0.326℃/ 10（年度）显著增加（p <0.01）。径流泥沙减少，泥沙在1.63×105个T / 10显著降低（p <0.01）。在1988年，空气温度经历突然增加和沉积物负载减小。 （2）对于径流，R2和Nash和萨克利夫效率系数（ENS）在验证期间是在标定时间段内0.92和0.91和0.90和0.87，对于底泥负载，R 2和ENS是在校准期间0.60和0.55和0.70 0.69在验证期间，符合模型的适用性要求。 （3）土壤侵蚀是在上游地区比其他地区更糟糕，和最高的耕地。气候变化加剧了径流，并以分别-26.54％和-8.8％，总的变化总体贡献输沙量。人类活动径流泥沙至126.54％和108.8％的总变化分别降低与整体贡献。径流泥沙在西河流域的变化主要是由人类活动引起的。

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