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Self-Organized Crowd Dynamics: Research on Earthquake Emergency Response Patterns of Drill-Trained Individuals Based on GIS and Multi-Agent Systems Methodology

机译：自组织人群动态：基于GIS和多代理系统方法的钻培训人物地震应急模式研究

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摘要

Predicting evacuation patterns is useful in emergency management situations such as an earthquake. To find out how pre-trained individuals interact with one another to achieve their own goal to reach the exit as fast as possible firstly, we investigated urban people’s evacuation behavior under earthquake disaster coditions, established crowd response rules in emergencies, and described the drill strategy and exit familiarity quantitatively through a cellular automata model. By setting different exit familiarity ratios, simulation experiments under different strategies were conducted to predict people’s reactions before an emergency. The corresponding simulation results indicated that the evacuees’ training level could affect a multi-exit zone’s evacuation pattern and clearance time. Their exit choice preferences may disrupt the exit options’ balance, leading to congestion in some of the exits. Secondly, due to people’s rejection of long distances, congestion, and unfamiliar exits, some people would hesitant about the evacuation direction during the evacuation process. This hesitation would also significantly reduce the overall evacuation efficiency. Finally, taking a community in Zhuhai City, China, as an example, put forward the best urban evacuation drill strategy. The quantitative relation between exit familiar level and evacuation efficiency was obtained. The final results showed that the optimized evacuation plan could improve evacuation’s overall efficiency through the self-organization effect. These studies may have some impact on predicting crowd behavior during evacuation and designing the evacuation plan.
机译：预测疏散模式可用于诸如地震的紧急管理情况。要了解训练有素的人如何互相互动，以便尽可能快地实现自己的目标，以便首先达到退出，我们调查了城市人民在地震灾害编译下的疏散行为，在紧急情况下建立了人群响应规则，并描述了钻探战略并通过蜂窝自动机模型定量地退出熟悉程度。通过设定不同的出口熟悉程度，进行了不同策略的模拟实验，以预测在紧急情况前的人们的反应。相应的模拟结果表明，撤离者的培训水平可能影响多出口区的疏散模式和间隙时间。他们的出口选择偏好可能会扰乱退出选项的余额，导致一些退出中拥堵。其次，由于人们拒绝了长距离，拥堵和不熟悉的出口，有些人会在疏散过程中犹豫不决。这种犹豫也会显着降低整体抽空效率。最后，在中国珠海市举办社区，提出了最佳城市疏散钻探战略。获得了出口熟悉水平和抽空效率之间的定量关系。最终结果表明，优化的疏散计划可以通过自组织效应改善疏散的整体效率。这些研究可能对在疏散期间预测人群行为和设计疏散计划的影响。

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