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首页> 外文OA文献 >The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western U.S.: A Crowd‐Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams
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The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western U.S.: A Crowd‐Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams

机译：NorWesT夏季流温度模型和美国西部的情景：人群来源的数据库和新的地理空间工具可以培养用户群并预测河流和溪流的广泛气候变暖

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Thermal regimes are fundamental determinants of aquatic ecosystems, which makes description and prediction of temperatures critical during a period of rapid global change. The advent of inexpensive temperature sensors dramatically increased monitoring in recent decades, and although most monitoring is done by individuals for agency-specific purposes, collectively these efforts constitute a massive distributed sensing array that generates an untapped wealth of data. Using the framework provided by the National Hydrography Dataset, we organized temperature records from dozens of agencies in the western U.S. to create the NorWeST database that hosts >220,000,000 temperature recordings from >22,700 stream and river sites. Spatial-stream-network models were fit to a subset of those data that described mean August water temperatures (AugTw) during 63,641 monitoring site-years to develop accurate temperature models ( = 0.91; RMSPE = 1.10°C; MAPE = 0.72°C), assess covariate effects, and make predictions at 1 km intervals to create summer climate scenarios. AugTw averaged 14.2°C (SD = 4.0°C) during the baseline period of 1993–2011 in 343,000 km of western perennial streams but trend reconstructions also indicated warming had occurred at the rate of 0.17°C/decade (SD = 0.067°C/decade) during the 40 year period of 1976–2015. Future scenarios suggest continued warming, although variation will occur within and among river networks due to differences in local climate forcing and stream responsiveness. NorWeST scenarios and data are available online in user-friendly digital formats and are widely used to coordinate monitoring efforts among agencies, for new research, and for conservation planning.
机译：热力制度是水生生态系统的基本决定因素，这使得在快速全球变化期间的临界性质的描述和预测。近几十年来，廉价温度传感器的出现急剧增加了监测，虽然大多数监测由个人特定于代理的目的而完成，但总是这些努力构成了一种巨大的分布式传感阵列，可以产生未开发的缺陷的数据。使用国家水力学数据集提供的框架，我们组织了来自西部的数十家机构的温度记录，以创建托管> 220,000,000辆河流和河网站的挪威数据库。空间流网络模型适用于在63,641监测现场期间描述的那些数据的那些数据的子集（AUGTW），以开发精确的温度模型（= 0.91; RMSPE = 1.10°C; MAPE = 0.72°C） ，评估协变量，并以1公里间隔进行预测，以创建夏季气候情景。在1993 - 2011年的基线期间，在343,000公里的西班牙溪流中平均为14.2°C（SD = 4.0°C），但趋势重建也表明了速度为0.17°C /十年的速度（SD = 0.067°C /十年）在1976 - 2015年40年期间。未来的情景表明，持续变暖，但由于局部气候迫使和流响应的差异，河流网络中的变化将发生变化。 NORWEST场景和数据在线提供用户友好的数字格式，并且广泛用于协调各机构之间的监控工作，用于新的研究以及保护计划。

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