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Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methodologies en difficulties

机译:气候变化对城市降雨极端值和城市排水的影响评估:方法论困难重重

摘要

Cities became since last decades more vulnerable to flooding because urban drainage infrastructure has been built at large scale, but also due to climate change. The number of quantitative assessment studies of the impact of climate change on urban drainage remains, however, rather limited. This is partly because of the particular difficulties when dealing with this type of impact. First problem is that the results of climate models need be downscaled to very small space and time resolutions (e.g. catchments of few kilometers, time scales as low as 5 minutes). The impact results consequently are highly uncertain, a problem that becomes more challenging since the properties of extremes do not automatically reflect those of average precipitation.This paper gives a state-of-the-art overview of the methodologies and results of climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and on urban hydrology and hydraulics. The several difficulties and uncertainty sources are being discussed, as well as the challenges in dealing with the urban hydrological climate change impact assessment and responses.
机译:自上个几十年以来,城市变得更容易遭受洪水的侵袭,这是因为大规模建设了城市排水基础设施,而且还由于气候变化。但是,有关气候变化对城市排水影响的定量评估研究的数量仍然有限。部分原因是在处理此类影响时特别困难。第一个问题是气候模型的结果需要缩小到非常小的空间和时间分辨率(例如,集水区只有几公里,时间尺度低至5分钟)。因此,影响的结果是高度不确定的,由于极端的属性无法自动反映平均降水的属性,因此该问题变得更具挑战性。本文概述了气候变化影响评估的方法和结果关于城市极端降雨以及城市水文和水力学。讨论了一些困难和不确定性来源,以及在处理城市水文气候变化影响评估和应对方面的挑战。

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