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首页> 外文OA文献 >Why corporations in developing countries are likely to be even more susceptible to the vicissitudes of international finance than their counterparts in the developed world: A Tribute to Ajit Singh
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Why corporations in developing countries are likely to be even more susceptible to the vicissitudes of international finance than their counterparts in the developed world: A Tribute to Ajit Singh

机译：为什么发展中国家的公司比发达国家的公司更容易受到国际金融风云变幻的影响：致敬阿吉特·辛格（Ajit Singh）

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All things considered, anything up to US $7 trillion of so-called quantitative easing (QE) funds has flooded emerging markets since the 2008 global financial crisis. These funds, created to stimulate a recovery in the OECD and to stabilise international financial markets, ended up mostly as emerging markets�� corporate bonds and loans (often after being leveraged into many multiples of their original value). They were then either mainly invested (Asia), or used (as in Latin America and South Africa) at best to finance economic activities which do not enhance productive capacities, such as residential construction, or used to finance deficits, M&A, capital flight and all sorts of financial deeds - including as fuel for any conceivable asset bubble. The enquiries of these issues, especially how corporations financed their investment, and how much of it took place, were subjects that fascinated Ajit. He was the first to find out that corporations in emerging markets relied much more on external finance than those in the OECD (where retained profits played a major role). The implication was that they were likely to be even more susceptible to the vicissitudes of financial markets - and as these became ever more weird (the almost inevitable outcome of hasty deregulation cum excess liquidity), the financial balances of corporate sectors north and south of the Equator ended up moving in opposite directions further than ever before. This is a key (if not the key) difference between current global financial fragilities and those at the onset of the current global financial crisis in 2007. This highly asymmetric corporate balance scenario is part and parcel of such a low interest rate and highly financialised environment, as now (among other things) so-called ���investors�� in search for elusive yields, inevitably have to take on more risk, leverage and illiquidity. And emerging markets have always been their markets of last resort. This is a vital (yet only implicit) ingredient of the peculiar ideas behind super-accommodative monetary policy; but the downside is the risk of more volatile asset prices (including commodities), and unchartered financial fragilities all over. Closer regulatory scrutiny worldwide, therefore, should have been an intrinsic part of such risky reflationary and monetary policies. But try to get speculators, traders and rentiers (or politicians in need of donations) to understand something, when their (shortterm) earnings, bonuses, share options and corporate-sponsored retirement plans depended on them not understanding it. The stakes for emerging markets' corporations, their economies, financial markets and wider society (and everybody else in the world for that matter) could scarcely be higher - but unfortunately these huge new challenges occur at the worst possible time, as our social imagination has seldom been so barren.
机译：考虑到所有因素，自2008年全球金融危机以来，多达7万亿美元的所谓的量化宽松（QE）资金已涌入新兴市场。为刺激经合组织的复苏并稳定国际金融市场而创建的这些资金主要以新兴市场公司的债券和贷款（通常在被杠杆化为其原始价值的许多倍之后）结束。然后，它们要么主要投资（亚洲），要么充其量（例如在拉丁美洲和南非）用于资助那些不提高生产能力的经济活动，例如住宅建设，或用于资助赤字，并购，资本外逃和各种金融行为-包括为任何可能的资产泡沫提供动力。对这些问题的询问，尤其是公司如何为投资提供资金以及发生了多少是使阿吉特着迷的主题。他是第一个发现新兴市场的公司比OECD（保留利润起主要作用）的公司更依赖外部融资的公司。这意味着它们可能更容易受到金融市场变迁的影响-并且随着它们变得越来越怪异（仓促放松管制和流动性过剩的几乎不可避免的结果），该市场南北的公司部门的财务平衡。赤道最终以相反的方向向前移动。这是当前全球金融脆弱性与2007年当前全球金融危机爆发时的脆弱性之间的一个关键（如果不是关键）差异。这种高度不对称的公司平衡方案是如此低利率和高度金融化环境的重要组成部分就像现在（其中包括）所谓的``投资者''以寻求难以捉摸的收益一样，不可避免地必须承担更多的风险，杠杆和流动性不足。新兴市场一直是他们的不得已的市场。这是超宽松货币政策背后独特思想的重要组成部分（但仅是隐含的）。但不利的一面是资产价格（包括商品）价格波动更大，以及遍布各地的金融脆弱性的风险。因此，在全球范围内进行更严格的监管审查，应该是此类风险较高的通货紧缩和货币政策的固有组成部分。但是，当他们的（短期）收入，奖金，购股权和公司赞助的退休计划依赖于他们不了解时，请尝试使投机者，交易员和租房者（或需要捐赠的政客）了解一些东西。对于新兴市场的公司，它们的经济，金融市场和更广阔的社会（以及世界上其他每个人）来说，赌注几乎不可能更高。但是不幸的是，由于我们的社会想象力，这些巨大的新挑战发生在最糟糕的时候很少这么贫瘠。

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    Palma J. G.;

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