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Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Study

机译：国际空间站概率风险评估研究的失败率和失败概率的推导

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) Program uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as part of its Continuous Risk Management Process. It is used as a decision and management support tool to not only quantify risk for specific conditions, but more importantly comparing different operational and management options to determine the lowest risk option and provide rationale for management decisions. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distributions used to quantify the failure rates and the probability of failures of the basic events employed in the PRA model of the ISS. The paper will show how a Bayesian approach was used with different sources of data including the actual ISS on orbit failures to enhance the confidence in results of the PRA. As time progresses and more meaningful data is gathered from on orbit failures, an increasingly accurate failure rate probability distribution for the basic events of the ISS PRA model can be obtained. The ISS PRA has been developed by mapping the ISS critical systems such as propulsion, thermal control, or power generation into event sequences diagrams and fault trees. The lowest level of indenture of the fault trees was the orbital replacement units (ORU). The ORU level was chosen consistently with the level of statistically meaningful data that could be obtained from the aerospace industry and from the experts in the field. For example, data was gathered for the solenoid valves present in the propulsion system of the ISS. However valves themselves are composed of parts and the individual failure of these parts was not accounted for in the PRA model. In other words the failure of a spring within a valve was considered a failure of the valve itself.
机译：美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的国际空间站（ISS）计划将概率风险评估（PRA）用作其持续风险管理流程的一部分。它用作决策和管理支持工具，不仅可以量化特定条件下的风险，而且更重要的是，比较不同的运营和管理选项以确定最低风险选项并为管理决策提供依据。本文介绍了用于量化失效率的概率分布和国际空间站PRA模型中采用的基本事件的失效率。本文将展示如何将贝叶斯方法用于不同的数据源，包括实际的轨道故障国际空间站，以增强对PRA结果的信心。随着时间的流逝以及从在轨故障中收集到更多有意义的数据，可以获得针对ISS PRA模型基本事件的越来越准确的故障率概率分布。 ISS PRA是通过将ISS关键系统（例如推进，热控制或发电）映射到事件序列图和故障树中而开发的。断层树的最低契约是轨道替换单位（ORU）。 ORU级别的选择与可以从航空航天业和该领域的专家那里获得的具有统计意义的数据的级别一致。例如，收集了ISS推进系统中存在的电磁阀的数据。但是阀门本身是由零件组成的，在PRA模型中未考虑这些零件的个别故障。换句话说，阀内的弹簧故障被认为是阀本身的故障。

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