• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文OA文献 >Market imitation and win-stay lose-shift strategies emerge as unintended patterns in market direction guesses
【2h】

Market imitation and win-stay lose-shift strategies emerge as unintended patterns in market direction guesses

机译：市场模仿和赢输输赢策略成为市场方向猜测中的意外模式

代理获取
本网站仅为用户提供外文OA文献查询和代理获取服务，本网站没有原文。下单后我们将采用程序或人工为您竭诚获取高质量的原文，但由于OA文献来源多样且变更频繁，仍可能出现获取不到、文献不完整或与标题不符等情况，如果获取不到我们将提供退款服务。请知悉。
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Decisions made in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market provides a rich environment to study how people make decisions since responding to market uncertainty needs a constant update of these strategies. For this purpose, we run a lab-in-the-field experiment where volunteers are given a controlled set of financial information -based on real data from worldwide financial indices- and they are required to guess whether the market price would go 'up' or 'down' in each situation. From the data collected we explore basic statistical traits, behavioural biases and emerging strategies. In particular, we detect unintended patterns of behavior through consistent actions, which can be interpreted as Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift emerging strategies, with Market Imitation being the most dominant. We also observe that these strategies are affected by external factors: the expert advice, the lack of information or an information overload reinforce the use of these intuitive strategies, while the probability to follow them significantly decreases when subjects spends more time to make a decision. The cohort analysis shows that women and children are more prone to use such strategies although their performance is not undermined. Our results are of interest for better handling clients expectations of trading companies, to avoid behavioural anomalies in financial analysts decisions and to improve not only the design of markets but also the trading digital interfaces where information is set down. Strategies and behavioural biases observed can also be translated into new agent based modelling or stochastic price dynamics to better understand financial bubbles or the effects of asymmetric risk perception to price drops.
机译：我们日常生活中的决策基于各种各样的信息，因此通常很难评估指导我们的策略。股市提供了一个丰富的环境来研究人们如何做出决策，因为应对市场不确定性需要不断更新这些策略。为此，我们进行了一个实地实验，根据全球金融指标的真实数据，为志愿者提供了一组受控的财务信息，并且要求他们猜测市场价格是否会“上涨”或在每种情况下都“下降”。从收集的数据中，我们探索了基本的统计特征，行为偏见和新兴策略。尤其是，我们通过一致的行为来检测意外行为模式，这些行为可以解释为市场模仿和胜败输错新兴战略，其中市场模仿是最主要的。我们还观察到这些策略受外部因素的影响：专家的建议，信息的缺乏或信息的过多加强了对这些直观策略的使用，而当受试者花费更多时间进行决策时，遵循这些策略的可能性就会大大降低。队列分析表明，尽管妇女和儿童的表现没有受到损害，但他们更倾向于使用这种策略。我们的结果对更好地处理客户对贸易公司的期望，避免金融分析师决策中的行为异常以及不仅改善市场设计而且还改善设置了信息的交易数字接口都非常有用。观察到的策略和行为偏差也可以转化为基于新主体的建模或随机价格动态，以更好地理解金融泡沫或不对称风险感知对价格下跌的影响。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
代理获取

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号