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The potential role of virtual water in solving water scarcity and food security problems in China

机译：虚拟水在解决中国水资源短缺和粮食安全问题方面的潜在作用

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Water, as a source of food security, plays an essential role in ensuring sustainable food resources for a growing population. However, water scarcity has increasingly become a constraint to economic development, particularly food production. The water-food challenge is impending because of China's increasing population and water demand. The concept of virtual water is useful to analyze this problem. In this paper, the implications and policy relevance of virtual water are expounded. Based on imported food volumes, it is calculated that an annual average of 10.52 X 16(9)m(3) of virtual water embodied in imported wheat and maize in the period between 1990 and 2000 is equivalent to 23% of the annual average transfer water volume of the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) project. Consequently, this 29.3 x 10(6) ha of virtual land is equivalent to 19% of China's arable land in 2000. Using the grain import prediction and the agricultural production conditions of China, the virtual water equivalents of China in 2010 and 2020 arc evaluated, and are about 88 x 10(9) m(3) in 2010 and 95 x 10(9) m(3) in 2020, respectively. Importing virtual water embedded in traded food can alleviate water stress and even achieve food security. Virtual water trade may compensate for water demands for not only the past but also the future. Meanwhile, water trade can store water in its virtual water form, enabling food storage to play a potential role in solving food problems, as well as promoting sustainability of water resources in China.
机译：水作为粮食安全的来源，在确保不断增长的人口可持续粮食资源方面发挥着至关重要的作用。但是，水资源短缺已日益成为经济发展特别是粮食生产的制约因素。由于中国人口和水需求的增加，水食品挑战迫在眉睫。虚拟水的概念对于分析此问题很有用。本文阐述了虚拟水的含义和政策相关性。根据进口粮食量，计算得出，1990年至2000年期间，进口小麦和玉米中包含的年平均虚拟水量为10.52 X 16（9）m（3），相当于年平均调水量的23％南水北调（SNWT）项目的水量。因此，这29.3 x 10（6）公顷的虚拟土地相当于2000年中国耕地的19％。使用谷物进口量预测和中国的农业生产条件，估算了2010年和2020年中国的虚拟水当量，分别为2010年的88 x 10（9）m（3）和2020年的95 x 10（9）m（3）。进口嵌入贸易食品中的虚拟水可以缓解水压力，甚至实现食品安全。虚拟水贸易不仅可以弥补过去的需求，而且可以弥补未来的需求。同时，水贸易可以虚拟水的形式存储水，从而使食品存储在解决食品问题以及促进中国水资源的可持续性方面发挥潜在作用。

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    Zhao FZ; Liu WH; Deng HB;

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