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Longevity risk securitization of housing reverse mortgages in future China

机译:未来中国住房反向抵押贷款的长寿风险证券化

摘要

China has gradually stepped into an aging society, and the living quality of the aged has been declining substantially due to the insufficient cash flow. The longevity risk is accelerated correspondingly. In this paper, housing reverse mortgage longevity risk securitization is introduced, and empirical analysis is conducted with the survivor bonds as the case. According to the longevity risk bond model, a sensitivity test is carried out on the survivor bonds by acknowledging the impact of mortality improvement on the investment income. This is seen to be of assistance for the design of future housing reverse mortgage longevity risk bonds. The main body of this paper consists of six parts. The first chapter is the introduction, covering a brief research background, research problems, assumptions and limitations. The second chapter is the literature review. The development of the longevity risk market, management method, securitization products, longevity risk, pricing model of longevity risk derivatives and optimal allocation design have been reviewed. The third chapter is the methodology including both qualitative and quantitative methods used in this study. The longevity risk bond type, structure and cash flow analysis of the current housing reverse mortgage loan is introduced with emphasis.The fourth chapter is the overview of the background to study, with housing reverse mortgage, longevity risk securitization and the securitization of the housing reverse mortgage loan. Secondly, the meaning of longevity risk and mortality risk is illustrated broadly. The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis of the impact of housing reverse mortgage loan longevity risk bond on the investment income. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for the natural mortality and average housing price growth rate.The sixth chapter is the conclusion. It summarizes the main contribution, managerial conclusions, and puts forward some new prospects on future researches. To conclude, throughout the sensitivity test, it can be found that the Lee-carter model is more dynamic, and can be modified to more forms in mortality prospect researches. The results also show that, there is a limited impact on investor's returns along with the mortality improvement, which oversees that it fits Chinese market. At last, longevity risk bonds connected with enterprise annuity and equity incentive could be studied to meet the needs of financial markets in the near future.
机译:中国已逐渐步入老龄化社会,由于现金流量不足,老年人的生活质量已大大下降。长寿风险相应增加。本文介绍了住房反向抵押贷款寿命风险证券化,并以幸存债券为例进行了实证分析。根据寿命风险债券模型,通过确认死亡率提高对投资收益的影响,对幸存债券进行了敏感性测试。可以看出,这有助于设计未来的住房反向抵押贷款寿命风险债券。本文的主体由六个部分组成。第一章为绪论,涵盖了简要的研究背景,研究问题,假设和局限性。第二章是文献综述。综述了长寿风险市场的发展,管理方法,证券化产品,长寿风险,长寿风险衍生产品的定价模型以及最优配置设计。第三章是本研究所使用的方法,包括定性和定量方法。着重介绍了当前住房反向抵押贷款的长寿风险债券的类型,结构和现金流量分析。第四章是研究背景概述,以住房反向抵押贷款,长寿风险证券化和反向住房证券化为主要内容。抵押贷款。其次,对寿命风险和死亡风险的含义进行了广泛的说明。第五章是住房反向抵押贷款寿命风险债券对投资收益影响的实证分析。对自然死亡率和平均房价增长率进行了敏感性分析。第六章为结论。总结了主要贡献,管理结论,并对今后的研究提出了一些新的展望。总而言之,在整个敏感性测试中,可以发现Lee-carter模型更具动态性,并且可以在死亡率前景研究中修改为更多形式。结果还表明,随着死亡率的提高,对投资者回报的影响有限,这证明它适合中国市场。最后,可以研究与企业年金和股权激励相关的寿命风险债券,以满足不久的将来金融市场的需求。

著录项

  • 作者

    Sun Huangying;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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