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Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

机译：管理不确定性以提高复杂基础设施项目的成本绩效

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摘要

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective.ududThis paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making.ududA new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.
机译：最近，澳大利亚和国际上出现了大量高调的基础设施成本超支事件。这只是长期的，更深入的问题的提示，它涉及初始预算估算实践，这在学术研究和行业评论中都得到了公认：不确定性问题。悉尼歌剧院的一个案例研究用于识别和说明成本超支的关键因果关系和系统动态。传统上，风险管理的作用是处理此类不确定性，但是复杂项目中涉及的不确定性的类型和程度显示出使已建立的风险管理技术无效。 ud ud本文考虑了当前预算估算实践的重大进展其中涉及一种特殊的统计建模方法，辅之以估算实践中的明确培训。统计建模方法结合了Savage的概率管理技术和Skitmore的数据池技术，这些技术管理值的实际分布而不是有缺陷的分布表示，而Skitmore的数据池技术则优化了参考集的大小。估算培训采用了哈伯德（Hubbard）率先提出的特定校准开发方法，从而减少了专家们因过度自信而产生的偏见并提高了主观决策的一致性。 ud ud基于组合统计数据开发了新的初始预算估算实践框架和训练方法，并解释和讨论每种技术。

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