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Percepção de imprevisibilidade familiar e sua relação com apropensão ao risco e o desconto do futuro

机译：家庭不可预测性的感知及其与家庭的关系冒险并轻视未来

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It is proposed that the perception of resource unpredictability during childhood promotes the development of a mental model of unpredictability, precursor of the preference for the immediate attainment of the resource (future discount) and for risk-taking, as a way of maximizing the chances of obtaining those resources perceived as unpredictable. The apparent irrationality of those behaviors (future discount and risk-taking) could be interpreted as adaptive responses to unpredictable environments produced by cognitive mechanisms of information processing on the environment, selected over human evolution. This study aimed to investigate relations between childh od family unpredictability dimensions, risk-taking and future discount. It included 394 people: 158 adults in conflict with the law that had already been in prison (mean age = 34.23 years; sd=10.17), 122 college students (M=19.26; sd=2.06) and 114 women above 40 years old and at least high school concluded (M=51.19; sd=8.64). We hypothesized that perceptions of childhood family unpredictability would favor short term choices and greater risk-taking. We used the procedure of monetary choice to evaluate future discount, the Childhood Family Unpredictability Scale (EIFI) and Specifc Risk-Taking Scale (EPRE), validated for the Brazilian population in the first two papers of this work. Both scales showed factor structure of four factors with satisfactory reliability indexes for research purposes. The results of the third paper indicated partial relation between the constructs of risk-taking and unpredictability, however, low relation of those and future discounting. The groups differed in relation to future discount (ANOVA), risk-taking (removed the effects of income MANCOVA) and family unpredictability (removed the effects of age and income MANCOVA). The group that exhibited the highest means of unpredictability also exhibited higher rates of future discount (adults in conflict with the law), indicating some relationship among these variables, especially in the area of financial resources. Risk-taking variables, however, behaved in an unexpected way with unpredictability and future discount. We concluded, considering the multidimensional approach, that relations among the constructs may not be linear as originally proposed. We indicate the possibility of expanding the study of these relations considering nonlinear models and refinement of evolutionary hypotheses. 14 Key-words: unpredictability, risk attitudes, Evolutionary Psychology, psychological measure, Life History Theory
机译：建议在童年时期对资源不可预测性的认识促进不可预测性心理模型的发展，这种心理模型是优先获得立即获得资源（未来折扣）和冒险的先驱，以此来最大程度地获得风险。获得那些被认为是不可预测的资源。这些行为（未来的折扣和冒险行为）的明显不合理性可以解释为对环境变化的适应性响应，这种变化是由人类进化过程中选择的环境信息处理认知机制所产生的。这项研究旨在调查儿童家庭的不可预测性维度，冒险和未来折扣之间的关系。其中包括394人：158名已触犯法律的成年人已经入狱（平均年龄= 34.23岁； sd = 10.17），122名大学生（M = 19.26； sd = 2.06）和114名40岁以上的女性和至少高中毕业（M = 51.19; sd = 8.64）。我们假设对童年家庭不可预测性的认识将有利于短期选择和更大的冒险精神。我们使用货币选择程序来评估未来的折现率，童年家庭不可预测性量表（EIFI）和特定风险承担量表（EPRE），已在本文的前两篇论文中针对巴西人口进行了验证。两种量表均显示四个因子的因子结构，具有令人满意的可靠性指标，可用于研究。第三篇论文的结果表明了风险承担和不可预测性之间存在部分联系，但是，这些与未来折现的联系却很低。这些群体在未来折扣（ANOVA），冒险（除去收入MANCOVA的影响）和家庭不可预测性（除去年龄和收入MANCOVA的影响）方面有所不同。表现出最大的不可预测性的群体也表现出更高的未来贴现率（成人与法律冲突），表明这些变量之间存在某种关系，尤其是在财务资源领域。但是，冒险变量表现出意料之外的方式，具有不可预测性和未来折价。考虑到多维方法，我们得出的结论是，构造之间的关系可能并非最初提出的那样是线性的。我们指出了考虑非线性模型和进化假设的完善来扩展对这些关系的研究的可能性。 14个关键词：不可预测性，风险态度，进化心理学，心理测度，生活史理论

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