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Excerpt from the Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Acquisition Research Symposium : Improved Methodology for Developing Cost Uncertainty Models for Naval Vessels

机译：第六届年度采购研究座谈会会议录的节录：改进的用于开发海军舰船成本不确定性模型的方法

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the probabilistic cost model currently in use by NAVSEA 05C to predict cost uncertainty in naval vessel construction and to develop a better method of predicting theultimate cost risk. The data used to develop the improved approach is collected from analysis of the CG(X) class ship by NAVSEA 05C. The NAVSEA 05C cost risk factors are reviewed and analyzed to determine if different factors are better cost predictors. The impact of data elicitation, the Money Allocated Is Money Spent (MAIMS) principle, and correlation effects are incorporated into the research and analysis of this paper. Data quality is directly affected by data elicitation methods and influences the choice of probability distribution used to give the best predictor of cost risk. MAIMS and correlation effects are shown to makea significant impact to the overall cost model. Program managers and analysts can readily implement theenhanced models using commercial Excel? add-ins, such as Crystal Ball? or @Risk and integrate them into their current cost risk analysis and management practices to better mitigate risk and control project cost.

机译：本文的目的是分析NAVSEA 05C当前使用的概率成本模型，以预测海军舰船建造中的成本不确定性，并开发一种更好的预测最终成本风险的方法。用于开发改进方法的数据是从NAVSEA 05C对CG（X）级飞船的分析中收集的。审查并分析了NAVSEA 05C成本风险因素，以确定不同因素是否是更好的成本预测指标。数据启发的影响，货币分配即花钱（MAIMS）原理以及相关效应被纳入本文的研究和分析。数据质量直接受到数据启发方法的影响，并影响用于提供最佳成本风险预测指标的概率分布的选择。事实证明，MAIMS和相关效应对整体成本模型有重大影响。程序经理和分析人员可以使用商业Excel轻松实现增强的模型吗？外接程序，例如Crystal Ball？或@Risk并将其集成到当前的成本风险分析和管理实践中，以更好地减轻风险并控制项目成本。

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Brown Cinda L.;
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年度 2009
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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 en_US
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7. Improved Methodology for Developing Cost Uncertainty Models for Naval Vessels [O] . Brown Cinda 2009

机译：用于开发海军舰船成本不确定性模型的改进方法

Excerpt from the Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Acquisition Research Symposium : Improved Methodology for Developing Cost Uncertainty Models for Naval Vessels

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