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Sovereign default contagion : an agent-based model approach

机译:主权违约传染:基于代理的模型方法

摘要

Sovereign default contagion in Eurozone has been under attention since the first problems in Greece at the end of 2009. Despite the improvements in the situation, in particular after several European Central Bank non- conventional monetary policy measures, the roots of the problem and policy prescriptions are still fiercely debated today. Using an agent-based model adapted from Tirole (2015), we simulate sovereign default contagion in a world where countries have random incomes, heterogeneous borrowing behaviors and risk aversion levels and where governments have the possibility to enter in ex-ante agreements to protect against default. We conclude that default contagion can be a very fast and ‘destructive’ process, higher spending countries tend to have lower disposable incomes and higher risk aversion levels are associated with lower default rates.
机译:自从2009年底希腊出现第一个问题以来,欧元区的主权违约蔓延一直受到关注。尽管情况有所改善,尤其是在欧洲中央银行采取了几种非常规货币政策措施之后,问题的根源和政策规定今天仍然激烈辩论。使用从Tirole(2015)改编的基于主体的模型,我们模拟了一个世界上的国家主权违约蔓延,在这个世界中国家拥有随机收入,异质借贷行为和风险规避水平,并且政府有可能订立事前协议以防范默认。我们得出结论,违约蔓延可能是一个非常快速且“破坏性”的过程,支出较高的国家往往可支配收入较低,而较高的风险规避水平与较低的违约率相关。

著录项

  • 作者

    Silvestre João;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2017
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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