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Statistical relationship between elderly crime and the social welfare system in Japan: Preventative welfare approach for the deterrence of elderly crime

机译：日本老年人犯罪与社会福利制度之间的统计关系：预防老年人犯罪的预防性福利方法

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摘要

The purpose of this study is to verify the hypothesis that enhancing social welfare provisions, particularly livelihood subsidies, would have a preventative effect against elderly crime. This article statistically examines the relationship between the rate of crime committed by the elderly and the operation of the social welfare system, mainly in the form of livelihood subsidies. The elderly crime rate was defined as the number of arrests of those aged 65 or older per 100,000 inhabitants aged 65 or older in each prefecture. The types of crime used as dependent variables in this study were Penal Code offenses (total), felonious offenses, violent offenses, larceny offenses, and other Penal Code offenses. The index of the enhancement of social welfare system used as independent variables in this study were Public welfare expenses per inhabitant, the number of welfare offices per 100,000 inhabitants, the number of welfare officers per 100,000 inhabitants, and the sufficiency rate of caseworkers in each prefecture. Results from regression analyses show that public welfare expenses per inhabitant is significantly negatively correlated with Penal Code offenses (total), felonious offenses, other Penal Code offenses, and the sufficiency rate of caseworkers is significantly negatively correlated with Penal Code offenses (total), felonious offenses, and other Penal Code offenses. These results corroborate not only preceding statistical studies that show correlation but also the individual example investigation that shows direct causality between the social welfare and the crimes. Therefore, it is thought that these results were valid. The hypothesis of this study was supported from welfare expenses and caseworker’s staffing points of view.
机译：这项研究的目的是验证以下假设：加强社会福利规定，特别是民生补贴，将对老年人犯罪起到预防作用。本文主要从民生补贴的角度，对老年人犯罪率与社会福利体系运行之间的关系进行了统计检验。老年人犯罪率的定义是，每个州每100,000名65岁以上的居民中65岁以上的被捕人数。在这项研究中用作因变量的犯罪类型为刑法犯罪（总计），重罪，暴力犯罪，盗窃罪和其他刑法犯罪。在本研究中，作为独立变量的社会福利制度的改善指数为每居民的公共福利支出，每十万居民的福利办公室数，每十万居民的福利官员数以及每个县的案例工作者的充足率。回归分析的结果表明，每位居民的公共福利支出与《刑法》犯罪（总数），重罪犯罪，其他《刑法》犯罪显着负相关，个案工作者的自给率与《刑法》犯罪（总数），重罪显着负相关。犯罪和其他《刑法》犯罪。这些结果不仅证实了先前的显示相关性的统计研究，而且还证实了表明社会福利与犯罪之间存在直接因果关系的个案研究。因此，认为这些结果是有效的。这项研究的假设得到了福利费用和案例工作者人员配备的支持。

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