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Do Trees Grow with the Economy? A Spatial Analysis of the Determinants of Forest Cover Change in Sichuan, China

机译：Do Trees Grow with the Economy? a spatial analysis of the Determinants of Forest Cover Change in sichuan, China

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摘要

This paper aims to identify the relationship between economic growth and forest cover change in Sichuan, China. Using a set of panel land use data based on Landsat TM/ETM digital images, we show that during the late 1980s and 1990s, Sichuan's forest cover initially decreased and then rose. We also note that the rising and falling trends occurred at the same time that Sichuan's economy was going through a period of rapid and sustained growth. We use multivariate analysis to identify the determinants of forest cover change. In addition to using a first-differenced estimator, we also utilize spatial error and spatial lag models to obtain consistent and efficient estimates of the determinants of forest cover. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of economic growth on the forest cover change; the results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between forest cover and GDP per capita. However, despite the nature of the empirical relationship between forest cover and income, the high turning point of the U-shaped relationship suggests that there is no evidence for the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for forests in Sichuan Province. Hence, policy interventions may be necessary to stop the decrease of forests.
机译：本文旨在确定中国四川的经济增长与森林覆盖率变化之间的关系。利用基于Landsat TM / ETM数字图像的一组面板土地利用数据，我们表明，在1980年代末期和1990年代末，四川的森林覆盖率先下降然后上升。我们还注意到，上升和下降趋势是在四川经济经历快速而持续增长的同时发生的。我们使用多元分析来确定森林覆盖率变化的决定因素。除了使用一阶微分估计器外，我们还利用空间误差和空间滞后模型来获得一致有效的森林覆盖率决定因素估计值。我们的分析表明，经济增长对森林覆盖率变化的重要性；结果表明，森林覆盖率与人均GDP之间呈U形关系。但是，尽管森林覆盖率和收入之间存在经验关系，但U形关系的高拐点表明，四川省没有证据表明存在森林的环境库兹涅茨曲线。因此，可能需要采取政策干预措施来停止森林砍伐。

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