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Impacts of the German support for renewable energy on electricity prices, emissions and profits: an analysis based on a European electricity market model

机译：德国对可再生能源的支持对电价，排放和利润的影响：基于欧洲电力市场模型的分析

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摘要

Effects of renewable support legislation on electricity prices have been analyzed with a plethora of models. However, these models neglect at least one of the following aspects which we take into account in our analysis: oligopolistic market behavior of dominant firms, emission trading, restricted electricity trade and production capacities, and effects on producer prices and firm profits. In this paper we use the electricity market model EMELIE and decompose the impact of the feed-in of renewable energy in Germany into two effects: a substitution effect triggered by the displacement of conventional sources and a permit price effect induced via the ETS. We find that the renewable support increases consumer prices slightly by 0.1 Eurocent/kWh, while the producer price decreases by 0.4 Eurocent/kWh. In addition, emissions from electricity generation in Germany are reduced by 32 Mt CO2, but are hardly altered if we consider the European electricity sector in total. Finally, the profits of most firms are significantly reduced by the support policy unless the firms combine relatively carbon intensive production equipment with a loose connection to the German grid.
机译：可再生能源支持立法对电价的影响已通过多种模型进行了分析。但是，这些模型至少忽略了以下方面之一，在分析中我们将这些方面考虑在内：主导企业的寡头市场行为，排放交易，受限制的电力贸易和生产能力以及对生产者价格和企业利润的影响。在本文中，我们使用电力市场模型EMELIE并将德国可再生能源发电的影响分解为两个效应：由传统能源的替代引发的替代效应和由ETS引发的许可价格效应。我们发现，可再生能源支持使消费者价格略微提高了0.1欧分/千瓦时，而生产者价格降低了0.4欧分/千瓦时。此外，德国的发电排放量减少了32 Mt CO2，但如果考虑到欧洲的电力部门，则几乎没有改变。最后，除非企业将碳密集型生产设备与德国电网之间的连接松动相结合，否则大多数企业的支持政策都会大大降低其利润。

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