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Recessions and recoveries in Asia: What can the past teach us about the present recession?

机译：亚洲的经济衰退和复苏：过去的经济衰退能告诉我们什么？

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With the global economy still in recession, two important questions arise for Asia: how soon will the recession end, and how vigorous will the region's recovery be? The purpose of this paper is to look at past recessions and recoveries in Asia in order to shed light on these issues. Several important stylized facts emerge from this study: (i) recessions accompanied by financial stress - notably, stress in domestic banking sectors - have been substantially longer and deeper than the norm, suggesting that the current recession could have been even costlier and more drawn out had Asia's banks not entered the downturn in such strong shape; (ii) recoveries in Asia have been weak because they were typically driven by a single engine: exports. In contrast, other emerging economies have tended to experience more vigorous recoveries because of a stronger contribution from domestic demand, notably investment; (iii) in Asia, deep recessions have resulted in substantial declines in potential output growth, meaning that their effects are not just cyclical but permanent. A clear lesson emerges from past experience: given the expected weak recovery in the eurozone and the United States, Asia should not count on exports to rebound strongly as it did in previous upturns. Rather, a fundamental rebalancing towards domestic demand is needed if Asia wants to preserve the high growth rates that have characterized its recent past. Finally, it remains to be seen whether potential output will fully recover from pre-crisis levels in the countries most affected by the crisis.
机译：在全球经济仍处于衰退之中的情况下，亚洲出现了两个重要问题：衰退将在多长时间结束，以及该地区的复苏将有多强劲？本文的目的是研究亚洲过去的衰退和复苏，以阐明这些问题。这项研究得出了几个重要的程式化事实：（i）伴随着金融压力的衰退（尤其是国内银行业的压力）比正常情况长得多，而且深度更深，这表明当前的衰退本来可能更昂贵，更严重亚洲的银行是否没有以如此强劲的势头进入衰退？ （ii）亚洲的复苏疲弱，因为它们通常是由单一动力驱动的：出口。相反，其他新兴经济体由于国内需求（特别是投资）的贡献较大，往往会经历更强劲的复苏。 （iii）在亚洲，严重的经济衰退导致潜在产出增长大幅下降，这意味着其影响不仅是周期性的，而且是永久性的。从过去的经验中可以得出一个明显的教训：鉴于欧元区和美国预期的疲软复苏，亚洲不应该指望出口像以前的好转一样强劲反弹。相反，如果亚洲想保持其过去特征的高增长率，就需要从根本上重新平衡内需。最后，在受危机影响最大的国家中，潜在产出是否能从危机前的水平完全恢复尚待观察。

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