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History Repeating: Spain Beats Germany in the EURO 2012 Final

机译：历史重演：西班牙队在2012年欧洲杯决赛中战胜德国队

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Four years after the last European football championship (EURO) in Austria and Switzerland, the two finalists of the EURO 2008 - Spain and Germany - are again the clear favorites for the EURO 2012 in Poland and the Ukraine. Using a bookmaker consensus rating - obtained by aggregating winning odds from 23 online bookmakers - the forecast winning probability for Spain is 25.8% followed by Germany with 22.2%, while all other competitors have much lower winning probabilities (The Netherlands are in third place with a predicted 11.3%). Furthermore, by complementing the bookmaker consensus results with simulations of the whole tournament, we can infer that the probability for a rematch between Spain and Germany in the final is 8.9% with the odds just slightly in favor of Spain for prevailing again in such a final (with a winning probability of 52.9%). Thus, one can conclude that - based on bookmakers' expectations - it seems most likely that history repeats itself and Spain defends its European championship title against Germany. However, this outcome is by no means certain and many other courses of the tournament are not unlikely as will be presented here. All forecasts are the result of an aggregation of quoted winning odds for each team in the EURO 2012: These are first adjusted for profit margins (overrounds), averaged on the log-odds scale, and then transformed back to winning probabilities. Moreover, team abilities (or strengths) are approximated by an inverse procedure of tournament simulations, yielding estimates of all pairwise probabilities (for matches between each pair of teams) as well as probabilities to proceed to the various stages of the tournament. This technique correctly predicted the EURO 2008 final (Leitner, Zeileis, Hornik 2008), with better results than other rating/forecast methods (Leitner, Zeileis, Hornik 2010a), and correctly predicted Spain as the 2010 FIFA World Champion (Leitner, Zeileis, Hornik 2010b). Compared to the EURO 2008 forecasts, there are many parallels but two notable differences: First, the gap between Spain/Germany and all remaining teams is much larger. Second, the odds for the predicted final were slightly in favor of Germany in 2008 whereas this year the situation is reversed.
机译：在上届在奥地利和瑞士举行的欧洲足球锦标赛（EURO）四年之后，2008年欧锦赛的两个决赛入围者-西班牙和德国-再次成为2012年欧洲杯在波兰和乌克兰的最爱。使用博彩公司的共识评分-通过汇总23家在线博彩公司的获胜几率获得-西班牙的预测获胜概率为25.8％，其次是德国，为22.2％，而所有其他竞争对手的获胜概率则要低得多（荷兰以预测为11.3％）。此外，通过对博彩公司的共识结果与整个锦标赛的模拟结果进行补充，我们可以推断出西班牙和德国在决赛中重赛的概率为8.9％，而西班牙在该决赛中再次获胜的几率略有上升（中奖概率为52.9％）。因此，可以得出一个结论，根据庄家的期望，历史似乎很可能重演，而西班牙则卫冕了德国的欧洲冠军头衔。但是，这种结果绝不是确定的，锦标赛的许多其他课程也不是不可能的，正如这里将要介绍的那样。所有预测都是对2012年欧洲杯每支球队的获胜赔率的汇总结果：首先对这些利润进行调整（溢价），对数赔率平均，然后转换回获胜概率。此外，团队能力（或实力）通过比赛模拟的逆过程进行近似，得出所有成对概率（针对每对球队之间的比赛）以及进行到比赛各个阶段的概率的估计。这项技术正确预测了2008年欧锦赛（莱特纳，Zeileis，霍尼克2008），其结果优于其他评级/预测方法（莱特纳，Zeileis，霍尼克2010a），并正确地预测了西班牙将成为2010年FIFA世界冠军（莱特纳，Zeileis， Hornik 2010b）。与2008年欧洲杯的预测相比，有很多相似之处，但有两个明显的区别：首先，西班牙/德国与其余所有车队之间的差距更大。第二，预计决赛的几率在2008年略胜德国，而今年情况则相反。

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