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Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma

机译：掀起全球化浪潮：亚洲和金融全球化背景下的三难困境

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Using the trilemma indexes developed by Aizenman et al. (2010) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma - monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness - we examine how policy configurations affect macroeconomic performances, with focus on the Asian economies. We find that the three policy choices matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a country holds international reserves (IR) at a level higher than a threshold (about 20% of GDP). Greater monetary autonomy is associated with a higher level of inflation while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness could lower the inflation rate. We find that trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility through the investment or trade channel depending on the openness of the economies. Our results indicate that policy makers in a more open economy would prefer pursuing greater exchange rate stability while holding a massive amount of IR. Asian emerging market economies are found to be equipped with macroeconomic policy configurations that help the economies to dampen the volatility of the real exchange rate. These economies' sizeable amount of IR holding appears to enhance the stabilizing effect of the trilemma policy choices, and this may help explain the recent phenomenal buildup of IR in the region.
机译：使用Aizenman等人开发的三难指数。 （2010年）衡量了三难困境中的三个政策目标（货币独立性，汇率稳定性和金融开放度）的成就程度，我们研究了政策配置如何影响宏观经济绩效，重点是亚洲经济体。我们发现，这三种政策选择对产出波动性和中期通胀水平至关重要。较高的货币独立性与较低的产出波动性相关，而较高的汇率稳定性意味着较高的产出波动性，如果一个国家的国际储备（IR）高于阈值（约占GDP的20％），则可以缓解这种情况。更大的货币自治权与更高的通货膨胀率相关联，而更高的汇率稳定性和更大的金融开放度则可以降低通货膨胀率。我们发现三难政策配置取决于经济的开放程度，通过投资或贸易渠道影响产出波动。我们的结果表明，在更加开放的经济中，政策制定者宁愿追求更高的汇率稳定性，同时又持有大量的投资者关系。发现亚洲新兴市场经济体已配备了宏观经济政策配置，可帮助其抑制实际汇率的波动。这些经济体大量持有投资者关系似乎增强了三难政策选择的稳定作用，这可能有助于解释该地区近期投资者关系的显着增长。

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