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Impact of infrastructure investment on tax: Estimating spillover effects of the Kyushu high-speed rail Line in Japan on regional tax revenue

机译：基础设施投资对税收的影响：估算日本九州高速铁路线对地区税收的溢出效应

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This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure investment on tax revenues and on the economy of the region. In 1991, the Kyushu high-speed rail line was constructed and was completed in 2003. In 2004, the rail line started operating from Kagoshima to Kumamoto. The entire line was opened in 2011. The effect of the Kyushu high-speed rail line (shinkansen train) on the economy has often been debated. We estimated its impact in the Kyushu region of Japan by using the difference-in-difference method, and compared the tax revenues of regions along the railway line with other regions that were not affected by the railway line. Our findings showed a positive impact on the region's tax revenue following the connection of the Kyushu rapid train with large cities such as Hiroshima and Osaka. Tax revenue in the region significantly increased during construction in 1991-2003, and dropped after the start of operations in 2004-2010. The rapid train's impact on the neighboring prefectures of Kyushu is positive. However, in 2004-2013, its impact on tax revenue in places farther from the rapid train was observed to be lower. When the Kyushu railway line was connected to the existing high-speed railway line of Sanyo, the situation changed. The study found statistically significant and economically growing impact on tax revenue after it was completed and connected to other large cities such as Hiroshima and Osaka. Tax revenues in the regions close to the high-speed train is higher than in adjacent regions. The difference-in-difference coefficient methods reveal that corporate tax revenue was lower than personal income tax revenue during construction. However, the difference in corporate tax revenues rose after connectivity with large cities was completed. The railway's connectivity to large cities has a significant economic impact not only in the case of Japan but also in other cases such as Uzbekistan.
机译：本文分析了基础设施投资对税收和对该地区经济的影响。 1991年，九州高铁线建成并于2003年完工。2004年，该铁路线从鹿儿岛开往熊本。整条线于2011年通车。九州高铁（新干线）对经济的影响经常引起争议。我们使用差异法估算了其对日本九州地区的影响，并将铁路沿线地区的税收收入与不受铁路线影响的其他地区进行了比较。我们的研究结果表明，九州快速列车与广岛和大阪等大城市相连后，对该地区的税收产生了积极影响。该地区的税收在1991-2003年的建设期间显着增加，而在2004-2010年开始运营后下降。快速火车对九州周边地区的影响是积极的。但是，在2004-2013年，据观察，其对远离快速列车的地方税收的影响较小。当九州铁路线连接到现有的三洋高速铁路线时，情况发生了变化。这项研究完成并与广岛和大阪等其他大城市相连后，发现对税收的统计意义重大且经济增长的影响。靠近高速列车的地区的税收收入比邻近地区高。差异系数法显示，在建设过程中公司税收低于个人所得税收入。但是，与大城市的连接完成后，公司税收收入的差异增加了。铁路与大城市的连接不仅对日本有影响，而且对乌兹别克斯坦等其他国家也有重大的经济影响。

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