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An Analysis of Secular Change in Tides at Open-Ocean Sites in the Pacific

机译：太平洋开放海域潮汐长期变化分析

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Hourly sea level is examined at 25 open-ocean stations in the Pacific Ocean with records longer than 30 yr. A search for trends finds that the amplitude of the dominant semidiurnal tide M2 is increasing at 12 of the 13 sites where a statistically significant trend can be identified. It is also found that nontidal variance in the neighborhood of M2 is decreasing at all 12 of the sites where a significant increase in M2 tide is occurring. The trend in amplitude of the dominant diurnal tide K1 is significant at six stations, and it is both increasing (four stations) and decreasing (two stations). The trend in semidiurnal-band variance suggests the hypothesis that increases in M2 could be caused by improvements in time keeping or data processing that would reduce the apparent phase variability of the tide. This possibility is examined and found to be the likely explanation for tidal trends at four stations. Local changes are found to explain the trend at two stations, Johnston Island and Mokuoloe, as diagnosed from correlated changes in nonlinear overtides and site history. Changes in M2 at the equatorial station of Kanton are significant and unexplained by either timing errors or local morphodynamics; although, strong nonlinear overtides are present. Changing tides at five stations in the western Pacific, Malakal, Yap, Saipan, Kapingamarangi, and Pohnpei cannot be explained by the above and suggest a region where a connection between climate and tides may yet be identified.
机译：在太平洋的25个开放海洋站中检查每小时的海平面，其记录超过30年。对趋势的搜索发现，在可以确定统计上显着趋势的13个站点中，有12个站点中的主要半日潮M2的振幅正在增加。还发现，在发生M2潮汐显着增加的所有12个地点，M2附近的非潮汐变化都在减小。优势昼间潮汐K1的振幅趋势在六个站均显着，并且既有增加（四个站）又有下降（两个站）。半日变化带的变化趋势表明，M2的增加可能是由于计时或数据处理方面的改进而引起的，这些改进会减小潮汐的明显相位变化。研究了这种可能性，并发现这是四个站点的潮汐趋势的可能解释。根据非线性叠加和站点历史的相关变化，可以发现局部变化可以解释约翰斯顿岛和莫库洛两个站点的趋势。坎顿赤道站M2的变化是显着的，无法用时间误差或局部形态动力学来解释。尽管存在强烈的非线性叠加。上面的解释无法解释西太平洋，马拉卡勒，雅浦，塞班岛，卡平格玛朗吉和波恩佩五个站的潮汐变化，并暗示了尚可确定气候与潮汐之间联系的区域。

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