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On The Road to Monetary Union – Do Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Economies React in the same way to United States' Monetary Policy Shocks?

机译：走向货币联盟的道路 - 阿拉伯海湾合作委员会经济体是否也以同样的方式对美国的货币政策冲击做出反应？

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摘要

This paper empirically estimates the responses of inflation and non-oil output growth from Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (AGCC) Countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) in order to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. For this, a structural vector autoregression identified with short-run restrictions was employed for each country with fund rate as US monetary policy instrument, non-oil output growth, and inflation. The main results that are of interest to decision makers suggest that (i) with respect to inflation, AGCC countries show synchronized responses to monetary policy shocks from the US and these responses are similar to US own inflation; (ii) with respect to non-oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can do as good of a job for AGCC countries as it has done at home. Therefore, importing monetary policy from the United States via a dollar peg may guarantee stable inflation for AGCC countries but not necessarily stable non-oil output growth. To the extent that the non-oil output response is taken seriously and there are concerns over the dollar's ability to perform its role as a store of value, a basket peg with both the US dollar and the Euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short-term interest rate.
机译：本文根据经验估算了阿拉伯湾合作委员会（AGCC）国家的通货膨胀和非石油产量增长对美国（US）货币政策冲击的反应，以确定是否有证据支持美元作为锚点提议的统一货币。为此，对每个国家都采用了具有短期限制的结构矢量自回归，并将货币利率作为美国货币政策工具，非石油产出增长和通货膨胀的国家。决策者感兴趣的主要结果表明：（i）在通货膨胀方面，AGCC国家对美国的货币政策冲击显示出同步的反应，这些反应类似于美国自身的通货膨胀； （ii）关于非石油产量的增长，没有明确的迹象表明美国的货币政策可以像对国内一样对AGCC国家起到很好的作用。因此，通过美元钉住美元从美国进口货币政策可以保证AGCC国家的稳定通货膨胀，但不一定能稳定非石油产量的增长。如果认真对待非石油产出的反应，并担心美元能否发挥其作为价值储存工具的作用，那么美元和欧元同时钉住一篮子货币可能是一个合理的选择，这一点已得到证实。我们的增强型SVAR的方差分解分析，并以欧洲短期利率作为代理。

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