When major incidents occur, whether in the form of natural disasters (for example, Tsunamis, hurricanes) or man-made incidents (such as acts of terrorism or war), there is an impact on travel flows and patterns. These impacts can be in the form of the volume of tourists that flow to a particular area, the characteristics of those tourists and/or the expenditure they make whilst there. The time required for destinations to recover from such incidents and the loss of tourism receipts depends upon a variety of factors such as the nature of the incident, the response of the destination to the incident and the impact that such events have on the travel risk perceptions of tourists. The purpose of this research is to examine the nature,magnitude and direct impacts of a selection of incidents and the time recovery period. Case studies of high profile events such as those that occurred in Egypt, Indonesia, Kenya, Spain, the UK and the USA have been selected because of the relative importance of the events and, to include a broad range of destination types. The incidents that have occurred will be examined through secondary data drawing heavily on related journal articles and the analyses of data that are published by the UNWTO, the World Bank and the relevant national governments. The literature analyses will look at the research that academics have undertaken when looking at specific incidents that occurred in the case study areas and in terms of their effects on tourism in general and to the areas involved. Data from published statistics will be used to examine tourist arrival trends prior to the incidents, immediately following. the incidents and the time period needed for the level of tourism activity to be restored to where it was likely to have been if the incident had not happened. Although the incidents are examined as individual case studies the analyses will also take a chronological approach to examine whether the impacts of major incidents diminishes with exposure to such events. That is, did the earlier terrorist attacks have a greater impact because of their novelty and therefore enhanced shock effect compared with later events even though the latter may have been of greater magnitude? The secondary analyses will also examine aspects such as whether there is a difference in impact if the incidents are specifically targeted at tourists in general rather than tourists of a particular nationality. Whenever events occur they may influence the perception of travellers in terms of the potential risks they face, related risks and how they may impact on the travel decisions of tourists, particularly non-business or discretionary tourists. There is a variety of risks that may influence the travel decisions of tourists including those relating to physical harm, financial loss and also the risk of dissatisfaction from their travel experience. The different types of risks that may influence travel decisions will be examined together with demographic characteristics of the travellers in order to explore whether there are differences in risk averseness between travellers from different countries of origin, age groups, gender, education and occupation. This aspect of the analysis will be driven by primary data analysis in the form of a questionnaire (physical and on-line) that uses both quantitative and qualitative instruments to determine travellers' travel-related risk perceptions and identify regions and countries that are felt to be high risk destinations by type of risk. The perceived risks will also be compared with actual risks as identified by insurance company claims data. Although limited in scope, this aspect of analysis will seek to identify whether travel-related risk perceptions mirror actual risks or whether they are driven by other factors such as media coverage of events. Using the man-made risks as the identifier, the regional aspects of travel-related risk will then be focused to one region of the planet in particular. This region is the Middle East plus some selected countries that share the same issues in relation to tourism development. Countries in this area have been beset by man-made incidents that have deterred the development of tourism in spite of the attractiveness of the region in terms of climate, heritage and culture. A comparative analysis is undertaken to look for commonalities and factors that explain the lack of tourism development in some countries. Using the findings from the secondary and primary data analyses the potential future of the region in general and Iran in particular will be examined using the Delphi technique by drawing upon the collective wisdom of some experts in tourism who have an understanding of tourism development in difficult political areas. Finally the research will attempt to pull all of these strands together to see if there are any identifiable guidelines that may help our understanding of travel related risks and whether there are any lessons that can be learned to inform the policy makers in troubled areas.
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