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Error assessment of solar irradiance forecasts and AC power from energy conversion model in grid-Connected photovoltaic systems

机译：并网光伏系统中太阳辐照度预测和来自能量转换模型的交流电的误差评估

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Availability of effective estimation of the power profiles of photovoltaic systems is essential for studying how to increase the share of intermittent renewable sources in the electricity mix of many countries. For this purpose, weather forecasts, together with historical data of the meteorological quantities, provide fundamental information. The weak point of the forecasts depends on variable sky conditions, when the clouds successively cover and uncover the solar disc. This causes remarkable positive and negative variations in the irradiance pattern measured at the photovoltaic (PV) site location. This paper starts from 1 to 3 days-ahead solar irradiance forecastsudavailable during one year, with a few points for each day. These forecasts are interpolated to obtain more irradiance estimations per day. The estimated irradiance data are used to classify the sky conditions into clear, variable or cloudy. The results are compared with the outcomes of the same classification carried out with the irradiance measured in meteorological stations at two real PV sites. The occurrence of irradiance spikes in “broken cloud” conditions is identified and discussed.udFrom the measured irradiance, the Alternating Current (AC) power injected into the grid at two PV sites is estimated by using a PV energy conversion model. The AC power errors resulting from the PV model with respect to on-site AC power measurements are shown and discussed.
机译：有效评估光伏系统功率分布的可用性对于研究如何提高许多国家电力结构中间歇性可再生资源的份额至关重要。为此，天气预报以及气象量的历史数据可提供基本信息。当云层连续覆盖并发现太阳盘时，预报的弱点取决于可变的天空条件。这会导致在光伏（PV）站点位置处测得的辐照度模式出现明显的正负变化。本文从1到3天的未来太阳辐照度预测一年内可用，每天有几点建议。对这些预测进行插值以获得每天更多的辐照度估计。估计的辐照度数据用于将天空条件分类为晴朗，多变或多云。将结果与在两个实际PV站点的气象站中测量的辐照度进行的相同分类的结果进行比较。识别并讨论“破碎云”条件下辐照度峰值的发生。 ud根据测得的辐照度，使用PV能量转换模型估算注入到两个PV位置的电网的交流（AC）功率。显示并讨论了由PV模型导致的有关现场交流功率测量的交流功率误差。

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