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Semiparametric frequency domain analysis of fractionally integrated and cointegrated time series.

机译:分数阶积分和协整时间序列的半参数频域分析。

摘要

The concept of cointegration has principally been developed under the assumption that the raw data vector Zt is I(1) and the cointegrating residual et is I(0); we call this framework the CI(l) case. The purpose of this thesis is to consider more general fractional circumstances, where Zt is stationary with long memory and et is stationary with less memory, or where Zt is nonstationary while et is less nonstationary or stationary, possibly with long memory. First we establish weak convergence to what we term "type II fractional Brownian motion" for a wide class of nonstationary fractionally integrated processes, then we go on to investigate the behaviour of the discretely averaged periodogram for processes that are not second order stationary. These results are exploited for the analysis of a procedure originally proposed by Robinson (1994a), which we call Frequency Domain Least Squares (FDLS). FDLS yield estimates of the cointe-grating vector that are consistent for stationary and nonstationary Zt, asymptotically equivalent to OLS in some circumstances, and superior in many others, including the standard CI(1) case; a semiparametric methodology for fractional cointegration analysis is applied to data sets on eleven US macroeconomic variables. Finally, we investigate an alternative definition of fractional cointegration, for which we introduce a continuously averaged version of FDLS, obtaining consistent estimates in both the stationary and the nonstationary case. Asymptotic distributions and Monte Carlo evidence on finite sample performance are also provided.
机译:协整的概念主要是在原始数据向量Zt为I(1)且协整残差et为I(0)的前提下开发的;我们将此框架称为CI(l)案例。本文的目的是考虑更一般的分数情况,其中Zt是静止的,具有较长的记忆,et是静止的,具有较少的记忆,或者Zt是非平稳的,而et是较少静止的或静止的,可能具有较长的记忆。首先,我们为一类非平稳分数积分过程建立了弱收敛性,即所谓的“ II型分数布朗运动”,然后继续研究了非二阶平稳过程的离散平均周期图的行为。这些结果被用于分析Robinson(1994a)最初提出的程序,我们将其称为频域最小二乘(FDLS)。 FDLS的共栅向量的产量估算值对于平稳Zt和非平稳Zt而言是一致的,在某些情况下渐近等效于OLS,而在许多其他情况下则更好,包括标准CI(1)情况;用于分数协整分析的半参数方法被应用于有关11个美国宏观经济变量的数据集。最后,我们研究了分数协整的另一种定义,为此我们引入了FDLS的连续平均版本,从而在平稳和非平稳情况下均获得了一致的估计。还提供了有限样本性能的渐近分布和蒙特卡洛证据。

著录项

  • 作者

    Marinucci Domenico;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 1998
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
  • 中图分类

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