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Interdependence of international tourism demand and volatility in leading ASEAN destinations

机译：Interdependence of international tourism demand and volatility in leading asEaN destinations

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International and domestic tourism are leading economic activities in today's world. Tourism has been known to generate goods and services directly and indirectly, attract foreign currency, stimulate employment and provide opportunities for investment. It has also been recognized as an important means of achieving economic development. Substantial research has been conducted to evaluate the role of international tourism, and its associated volatility, within and across various economies. This paper applies several recently developed models of multivariate conditional volatility to investigate the interdependence of international tourism demand, as measured by international tourist arrivals, and its associated volatility in the four leading destinations in ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Each of these countries has attractive tourism characteristics, such as significant cultural and natural resources. Shocks to international tourism demand volatility could affect, positively or negatively, the volatility in the tourism demand of neighbouring countries. The empirical results should encourage regional cooperation in tourism development among ASEAN member countries and also mobilize international and regional organizations to provide appropriate policy actions.
机译：国际和国内旅游业是当今世界领先的经济活动。众所周知，旅游业可以直接和间接地产生商品和服务，吸引外汇，刺激就业并提供投资机会。它也被认为是实现经济发展的重要手段。已经进行了大量研究，以评估国际旅游业在不同经济体内和不同经济体中的作用及其相关的波动性。本文采用了最近开发的多种条件波动率模型，以调查国际旅游需求的相互依赖性（以国际游客的到来量度），以及在东盟四个主要目的地印度尼西亚，马来西亚，新加坡和泰国的相关波动性。这些国家中的每一个都具有吸引人的旅游特色，例如重要的文化和自然资源。国际旅游需求波动的冲击可能对邻国旅游需求的波动产生正面或负面的影响。实证结果应鼓励东盟成员国之间在旅游业发展方面进行区域合作，并动员国际和区域组织采取适当的政策行动。

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