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Examining the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of large-scale European droughts

机译:研究欧洲大规模干旱的时空演变和特征

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摘要

Historical records of major droughts at continental scales are useful in contributing to improved water resources management and better understanding of hydrological processes. Droughts exhibit complex spatial and temporal variability, so an objective classification is preferable to allow comparisons to be made between different regions and seasons. This study investigates the use of threshold-based regional indices of hydrological and meteorological deficiency to characterise regional drought across Europe, and to examine the spatio-temporal evolution of large-scale droughts. Major droughts over the second half of the twentieth century have been identified using these approaches, and the 1962-64 and 1995-97 events are explored in more detail, with particular focus on the UK, through comparisons between their differing spatio-temporal evolution, temperature and pressure anomalies and the synoptic climatic conditions. It is concluded that the European droughts of 1962-64 and 1995-97 have distinctive 'signatures', and a variety of drought characteristics and developmental stages that reflect the complexity of drought evolution. Whilst the former event featured a straightforward succession of dry winters that were generally coherent in the UK and Europe, the latter was a more complicated amalgam of summer and winter deficiencies containing alternating periods when the UK was 'in phase' or 'out of phase' with Europe. These complexities potentially preclude the development of forecasting tools pending further research on the intricacies of the spatio-temporal variability of droughts.
机译:大陆范围内重大干旱的历史记录有助于改善水资源管理和更好地了解水文过程。干旱表现出复杂的时空变异性,因此最好进行客观分类,以允许在不同地区和季节之间进行比较。这项研究调查了使用基于阈值的水文和气象不足区域指数来描述整个欧洲的区域干旱的特征,并研究了大规模干旱的时空演变。使用这些方法已经确定了20世纪下半叶的重大干旱,并且通过比较不同时空演变之间的差异,更详细地探讨了1962-64年和1995-97年的事件,特别是针对英国。温度和压力异常以及天气气候条件。结论是,1962-64年和1995-97年的欧洲干旱具有独特的“特征”,并且各种干旱特征和发展阶段反映了干旱演变的复杂性。前一个事件的特点是英国和欧洲通常连贯的干燥冬季连续,而后者则是夏季和冬季缺乏的更为复杂的混合体,其中包含英国处于“同相”或“异相”的交替时期。与欧洲。这些复杂性可能会阻止开发预测工具,从而有待进一步研究干旱时空变异的复杂性。

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