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Preaching to the choir? A Comparison of Fiscal Forecasts by Governments, Fiscal Policy Councils and the European Commission in the European Semester Framework

机译：向合唱团讲道？政府，财政政策委员会和欧盟委员会在欧洲学期框架下的财政预测比较

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The high debt levels experienced in European Countries have lead to academic interest in the deficit bias -the tendency for governments to run budget deficits and accumulate debt. In part one of this thesis a surveyof the economic literature on the origins and solutions to the deficit bias are conducted. The proposedinstitutional solution to the deficit bias in the form of Fiscal Policy Councils (FPC) are outlined and existingEuropean FPCs presented. Based on the works of Calmfors and Wren-Lewis (2011) the EuropeanCommission (EC) is defined as an FPC. Based on this survey, two hypothesis are formulated: (1) theforecasts of future macro-economic events and fiscal performance will differ between the national FPCs andthe national government. (2) The forecasts of macro-economic events and fiscal performance will differbetween the EC and the national governments. Part two comprises of an empirical study to test thehypothesis. It assesses the fiscal forecasts provided by national governments in their stability/convergenceprogrammes, EC recommendations and FPC documents. Fiscal forecast by national government are found tobe broadly in line with forecasts by EC and FPCs. Based on these findings the hypothesis are discardedhowever remarks complicating these conclusions are presented.

机译：欧洲国家经历的高债务水平导致人们对赤字偏差产生了学术兴趣，这种倾向是政府出现预算赤字并积累债务的趋势。在本文的第一部分中，对赤字偏差的成因和解决方案进行了经济学文献调查。概述了以财政政策委员会（FPC）形式提出的解决赤字偏差的体制解决方案，并介绍了现有的欧洲FPC。根据Calmfors和Wren-Lewis（2011）的工作，欧洲委员会（EC）被定义为FPC。在此基础上，提出了两个假设：（1）国家FPC与中央政府对未来宏观经济事件和财政绩效的预测会有所不同。（2）欧共体和各国政府对宏观经济事件和财政绩效的预测会有所不同。第二部分包括检验假设的实证研究。它评估各国政府在其稳定性/融合计划，EC建议和FPC文件中提供的财政预测。人们发现，中央政府的财政预测与欧共体和私营金融公司的预测大致相符。基于这些发现，假设被舍弃，但是提出了使这些结论复杂化的评论。

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Nyström Per-Erik;
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年度 2012
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Preaching to the choir? A Comparison of Fiscal Forecasts by Governments, Fiscal Policy Councils and the European Commission in the European Semester Framework

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