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A Kind of Method for Early Warning of Price Fluctuation of Agricultural Product and Its System
A Kind of Method for Early Warning of Price Fluctuation of Agricultural Product and Its System
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机译：一种农产品价格波动预警方法及其系统
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#$%^&*AU2020101238A420200806.pdf#####Abstract The present invention discloses a kind of method for early warning of price fluctuation of agricultural product and its system. The method consists of: taking samples of historical price fluctuations of agricultural products of species to be measured in the areas to be measured, and thus obtain the sample data; applying kernel density estimation method to analyze the sample data, and thus obtain the probability density function of the price fluctuation of agricultural product; obtaining the price fluctuation values in the default price fluctuation ranges corresponding to each warning degree from the sample data; carrying out least square operation to the price fluctuation value, and thus obtain the quantile probability of price fluctuation corresponding to each warning degree; determining the price fluctuation ranges under different warning degrees according to the probability density function and the quantile probability of price fluctuation; and then compare the price fluctuation values of agricultural products of species to be measured in the areas to be measured with the price fluctuation ranges. Wherein, when the price fluctuation value of agricultural product falls in the price fluctuation range, the early warning corresponding to the warning degree is sent out. The method and its system disclosed in the present invention may carry out accurate early warning against the price fluctuation of agricultural product, and thus improve the objectivity of price fluctuation analysis of agricultural product.Drawings of Description Take samples of historical price fluctuations of 101 agricultural products of species to be measured in the areas to be measured, and thus obtain the sample data Apply kernel density estimation method to analyze the sample data, and thus obtain the probability density 102 function of the price fluctuation of agricultural product value of the agricultural product Obtai the price fluctuation value fallen in thedefault 103 price fluctuation range corresponding to each warning degree from sample data Cany out least square operation to the price fluctuation _ 104 value, and thus obtain the quantile probability of price fluctuation corresponding to each warning degree Determine the price fluctuation range under different 105 warning degree according to the probability density [" function and the quantile probability of price fluctuation Compare the price fluctuation values of agricultural products of species to be measured in the areas to be measured with the price fluctuation ranges. Wherein, 106 henthe price fluctuation value of the agricultural product falls in the price fluctuation ranges, the early waring corresponding to the warning degree is sent ou FIG.1 1/2
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