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ENSEMBLE FORECAST STORM DAMAGE RESPONSE SYSTEM FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

机译:关键基础设施的可预见风暴危害响应系统

摘要

A storm damage response system includes a storm ensemble database that stores ensemble forecast models associated with respective potential storm paths of a given storm across a geographic area and an inventory database that stores inventory data associated with location and characteristics of power-providing equipment and characteristics of a consumer population in the geographic area. A storm damage model algorithm generates a storm response plan comprising an operational procedure for repairing or maintaining power transmission and distribution electric systems to mitigate storm damage impact based on generating a probabilistic model for each of the ensemble forecast models based on the inventory data and calculating a statistical impact value associated with the probabilistic model based on an aggregate of iterative probabilistic simulations for the respective ensemble forecast model. The storm response plan can be generated based on the relative statistical impact value of the probabilistic model of each of the ensemble forecast models.
机译:风暴破坏响应系统包括:风暴集合数据库,其存储与跨地理区域的给定风暴的各个潜在风暴路径相关联的集合预报模型;以及库存数据库,其存储与供电设备的位置和特性以及电力供应设备的特性相关的库存数据。地理区域中的消费人群。风暴破坏模型算法会基于库存数据为每个集合预测模型生成一个概率模型,并计算出一个风暴响应计划,该计划包括一个用于修复或维护输配电系统以减轻风暴破坏影响的操作程序,以减轻风暴破坏的影响。基于各个集合预测模型的迭代概率模拟的总和,与概率模型相关的统计影响值。可以基于每个集合预报模型的概率模型的相对统计影响值来生成风暴响应计划。

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