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System and method for physically based ensemble forecasting of Changma precipitation
System and method for physically based ensemble forecasting of Changma precipitation
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机译：昌马降水基于物理集合预报的系统和方法
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摘要
The present invention relates to an objective method for constructing an ensemble prediction model for seasonally predicting rainy season precipitation by applying a statistical method using spring sea surface temperature, upward longwave radiation and snow covering data physically affecting rainy season precipitation, A predecessor determining unit for finding a leading factor combination having a correlation coefficient between the predicted value and the observed value having a correlation coefficient of at least 0.7 and a correlation coefficient of at least 0.7 with the exponent and the correlation coefficient and using the spring sea temperature or the rate of change determined by the predecessor determining unit, North Atlantic Change Index (NAC), North Atlantic 1 Index (NA1), Central Pacific El Nio Index (CNINO), Bering Sea (BS), Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) , Eurasian Snow Cover (EUSC) using spring snow cover materials, and the northwest Pacific region using spring upward longwave radiation data An individual prediction model constructing unit that constructs a multiple regression prediction model using a predecessor of the number (Western North Pacific (OLR); WNP (OLR)), an ensemble prediction model using the prediction models determined in the individual prediction model constructing unit And an ensemble prediction model constructing unit.
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机译：本发明涉及一种客观方法，该方法通过应用统计方法来构建用于季节性预测雨季降水的总体预测模型，该统计方法利用春季海面温度，向上的长波辐射和对雨季降水产生物理影响的积雪数据，用于确定的前身确定单元。预测值和观测值之间具有相关系数的先导因子组合，具有指数和相关系数的相关系数至少为0.7，相关系数至少为0.7，并且使用春季海水温度或变化率由前任确定单位确定，北大西洋变化指数（NAC），北大西洋1指数（NA1），中太平洋厄尔尼诺指数（CNINO），白令海（BS），北印度洋（NIO），欧亚积雪（EUSC） ）使用春季积雪材料，而西北太平洋地区则使用春季向上隆瓦ve辐射数据一个单独的预测模型构建单元，它使用该数字的前身来构建多元回归预测模型（Western North Pacific（OLR）; WNP（OLR）），使用在个体预测模型构建单元中确定的预测模型的整体预测模型和整体预测模型构建单元。
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