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POPULATION ESTIMATION METHOD, POPULATION ESTIMATION PROGRAM, AND POPULATION ESTIMATION DEVICE
POPULATION ESTIMATION METHOD, POPULATION ESTIMATION PROGRAM, AND POPULATION ESTIMATION DEVICE
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机译：人口估计方法，人口估计程序和人口估计装置
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摘要
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To make a scenario analysis easily executable in which a change of factors affecting a population fluctuation in the future is assumed.SOLUTION: The storage unit 11 of a population estimation device 10 stores element information indicating the value of each of a plurality of population fluctuation elements in each year of a first period in the past. An arithmetic unit 12 determines, for each of the plurality of population fluctuation elements, a relational expression indicating relationship between a coefficient of fluctuation indicating an increment or decrement ratio to the population and a lapsed period from the start time of the first period. Next, the arithmetic unit 12 calculates, on the basis of the relational expression, a coefficient of fluctuation of each of the plurality of population fluctuation elements in each year within a second period that starts from the year after the first period, and changes some of the calculated coefficients of fluctuation to a coefficient of fluctuation that is inputted as a scenario. Thereafter, the arithmetic unit 12 makes each year within the second period to be a population calculation subject year in order from the first year of the second period. Then, the arithmetic unit 12 calculates the population of a calculation subject year on the basis of a population in the year before the calculation subject year and a coefficient of fluctuation of each of the plurality of population fluctuation elements in the calculation subject year.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1
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