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METHOD OF ASSESSING RISK OF POWER SYSTEM WITH HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND POWER

机译：风电高穿透力的电力系统风险评估方法

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摘要

A method of assessing risk of power system with high penetration of wind power includes following steps. A correlation coefficient between wind power and load is obtained, and a probability of negative peak shaving is calculated. A probability of extreme ramp rate under extreme weather conditions is obtained, wherein a probability distribution of the extreme ramp rate matches principles of HILF and LIHF. A PRNS, an ERNS, and a RI are obtained, optimal reserve demand is obtained utilizing Unit Commitment Model, and operation risk based on PRNS, ERNS, and RI is calculated. A relationship between frequency and consequence distribution of risk is obtained by calculating the operation risks during N days, dividing the operation risks into different risk levels, and calculating a frequency of each risk level, wherein the operation risks in each level have similar values.
机译：一种评估具有高风能渗透力的电力系统风险的方法，包括以下步骤。获得风能与负荷之间的相关系数，并计算出负峰值削峰的概率。获得了极端天气条件下的极端斜坡率的概率，其中，极端斜坡率的概率分布与HILF和LIHF的原理匹配。获得PRNS，ERNS和RI，使用单元承诺模型获得最佳储备需求，并基于PRNS，ERNS和RI计算操作风险。通过计算N天的操作风险，将操作风险划分为不同的风险级别，并计算每个风险级别的频率，可以得到风险发生频率与风险的后果分布之间的关系，其中每个级别的操作风险具有相似的值。

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