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METHOD, DEVICE AND PROGRAM FOR ESTIMATING VARIATION OF TOTAL POWER GENERATION OUTPUT FROM NATURAL ENERGY TYPE DISTRIBUTED POWER SOURCE GROUP

机译:估计自然能源型分布式电源组总发电量变化的方法,装置和程序

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate a variation amount of total output from a number of natural energy type distributed power sources from a little data by a simple method.;SOLUTION: Within an estimation target area, weather data and/or power generation output data are measured, and a power spectrum of power generation output from natural energy type distributed power sources and a power spectrum of average output are computed by using the measured data. Average coherence among variations of the power generation output from the natural energy type distributed power sources is calculated by using the power spectrums, and an index of a smoothing effect for each varying frequency in the case where the number of locations of the natural energy type distributed power sources is increased more than the number of measuring spots is estimated by using the coherence. A power spectrum of average output from the natural energy type distributed power sources in the case where the number of the distributed power sources is increased more than the number of measuring spots is estimated and a power spectrum of total output in the case where the number of distributed power sources is increased more than the number of measuring spots is estimated by using the index of the smoothing effect. A variation width of total output in the case where the number of distributed power sources is increased more than the number of measuring spots is estimated by using a standard deviation.;COPYRIGHT: (C)2014,JPO&INPIT
机译:要解决的问题:通过一种简单的方法,根据少量数据来估算多种自然能源类型分布式电源的总输出的变化量;解决方案:在估算目标区域内,天气数据和/或发电输出数据进行测量,并通过使用测量数据来计算从自然能源型分布式电源输出的发电功率谱和平均输出功率谱。通过使用功率谱来计算从自然能源类型的分布式电源输出的发电量的变化之间的平均相干性,以及在自然能源类型的分布位置的数量的情况下针对每个变化频率的平滑效果的指数电源的增加超过了使用相干估计的测量点的数量。估计在分布式电源的数量比测量点的数量增加更多的情况下,自然能源类型的分布式电源的平均输出的功率谱,而在分布式电源的数量大于或等于测量点的情况下,则估计总输出的功率谱。分布式电源的增加超过了使用平滑效果指数估算出的测量点数量。通过使用标准偏差估算在分布式电源数量增加超过测量点数量的情况下总输出的变化幅度。; COPYRIGHT:(C)2014,JPO&INPIT

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