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SUMMERTIME PREDICTION METHOD OF TYPHOON OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA
SUMMERTIME PREDICTION METHOD OF TYPHOON OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA
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机译：东海台风夏季预报方法
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摘要
A method for predicting typhoons over the east China sea in the summer season is provided to enable prediction of the number of typhoons passing over the east China sea between July and September through weather parameter prediction factors between March and June. A method for predicting the number of typhoons in a region of the north latitude of 25-35 deg. to the east longitude of 120-130 deg. between July and September comprises predicting the number of typhoons passing over the above region in the year in question according to the mathematical formula of Yj=a1(SST1j-SST2j)+a2VORj+a3OLRj+b (wherein j is the year in question, yj is the number of typhoons passing over the region in year J, SST1j-SST2j is the first prediction factor of year j, VORj is the second prediction factor of year j, OLRj is the third prediction factor of year j, each of a1, a2 and a3 is a coefficient, and b is a constant). The first prediction factor of year i is (SST1i-SSTi), which is the difference between the average sea level temperature(SST1i) between March and May of year i in a region where the number of typhoons between March and May in the years preceding year j and the average sea level temperature are in a positive delay relationship, and the average sea level temperature(SST2i) between March and May of year i in a region where the number of typhoons between March and May in the years preceding year j and the average sea level temperature are in a negative delay relationship. The second prediction factor is an average 850 hpa relative vorticity(VORi) in June of year i in a region where the number of typhoons in June of the years preceding year j and 850 hpa relative vorticity are in a positive delay relationship. The third prediction factor of year i is an average upward long wave radiation(OLRi) in June of year i in a region where the number of typhoons in June of the years preceding year j and the upward long wave radiation are in a negative delay relationship. Factors a1, a2 and a3 and constant b are values minimizing f(a,b) as defined by the following formula and calculated by using the Bloomfield-Steiger algorithm.
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