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Method for estimating a variable geophysical field, particularly for forecasting atmospheric precipitation, on small space and times scales
Method for estimating a variable geophysical field, particularly for forecasting atmospheric precipitation, on small space and times scales
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机译：在小空间和时间尺度上估算可变地球物理场的方法，尤其是预测大气降水的方法
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摘要
What is described is a procedure for estimating a variable geophysical field, such as, in particular, a meteorological rainfall field, in a predetermined geographic region. On the basis of a set of data (P(X,Y,T)) indicating the values taken by the field in the region in a predetermined time interval, having specified space and time resolutions, a synthetic stochastic field (r(x,y,t)) was determined, with finer space and time resolutions, by downscaling the acquired data. The downscaling operation includes the reconstruction of the power spectrum of the field according to a predetermined quadratic functional expression approximating the power spectrum (|P̂(KX, KY, Ω)|2) of the data acquired at the resolved space and time scales, the extrapolation of the reconstructed spectrum to the smaller target scales (|P̂(kx, ky, ω)|2) and the generation of random phases of the field (φ(kx, ky, ω)).;An ensemble of realizations of the rainfall field determined in this way can be used for analysing the evolution of hydrological phenomena, and in particular for estimating the risk of a flood event in a predetermined geographical region.
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机译：所描述的是一种用于估计预定地理区域中的可变地球物理场，特别是气象降雨场的过程。根据一组数据（ P （ X，Y，T ）），该数据表示在预定时间间隔内该区域中的字段所取的值，在空间和时间分辨率方面，通过缩小获取的数据的比例，可以确定具有更好的空间和时间分辨率的合成随机场（ r（x，y，t ））。缩减操作包括根据预定的二次函数表达式重构场的功率谱，该二次函数表达式近似于功率谱（| P̂ （ K X ， K Y ，Ω）| 2 ）在解析的空间和时间尺度上获取的数据，将重构频谱外推到较小的目标尺度（| P̂ （ k x ，k y ，ω）| 2 < / Sup>）和场的随机相位的生成（φ（ k x ，k y ，ω）.;以这种方式确定的降雨场的整体实现可用于分析水文现象的演变，尤其是用于估计预定地理区域中洪水事件的风险。
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