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FORECAST OPERATION METHOD FOR LOWERING RESERVOIR FLOOD LIMITED WATER LEVEL CONSIDERING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY

机译:考虑预测不确定性,降低水库洪水限制水位的预测运算方法

摘要

A forecast operation method for lowering the reservoir flood limited water level considering forecast uncertainty is disclosed. The flood forecast feasibility of a reservoir controlled basin is analyzed, and the principle of maximum entropy is adopted to identify forecast error distribution; A framework of operation rules for lowering the flood limited water level at the flood rising stage is formulated by using an idea of pre-release, and the forecast operation framework is optimized to obtain forecast operation solution optimization point sets; All optimization point sets that achieve the upstream and downstream flood control safety in case of maximum forecast errors are screened out from the forecast operation solution optimization point sets; and finally, in comprehensive consideration of forecast errors and different preferences of decision makers, the optimal forecast operation solution points are evaluated by using a binary comparison method and a fuzzy optimization model.
机译:公开了考虑预测不确定性降低储层洪水有限水位的预测运算方法。 分析了储层控制盆地的洪水预测可行性,采用了最大熵原理来识别预测误差分布; 通过使用预发布的概念制定了降低洪水上升阶段的洪水限制水位的操作规则框架,并优化了预测操作框架以获得预测操作解决方案优化点集; 在预测操作解决方案优化点集中筛选出在最大预测误差下实现上游和下游防洪安全的所有优化点集; 最后,在综合考虑预测错误和决策者的不同偏好时,通过使用二进制比较方法和模糊优化模型来评估最佳预测操作解决方案点。

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