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FORECAST OPERATION METHOD FOR LOWERING RESERVOIR FLOOD LIMITED WATER LEVEL CONSIDERING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
FORECAST OPERATION METHOD FOR LOWERING RESERVOIR FLOOD LIMITED WATER LEVEL CONSIDERING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
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机译:考虑预测不确定性,降低水库洪水限制水位的预测运算方法
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摘要
A forecast operation method for lowering the reservoir flood limited water level considering forecast uncertainty is disclosed. The flood forecast feasibility of a reservoir controlled basin is analyzed, and the principle of maximum entropy is adopted to identify forecast error distribution; A framework of operation rules for lowering the flood limited water level at the flood rising stage is formulated by using an idea of pre-release, and the forecast operation framework is optimized to obtain forecast operation solution optimization point sets; All optimization point sets that achieve the upstream and downstream flood control safety in case of maximum forecast errors are screened out from the forecast operation solution optimization point sets; and finally, in comprehensive consideration of forecast errors and different preferences of decision makers, the optimal forecast operation solution points are evaluated by using a binary comparison method and a fuzzy optimization model.
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