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首页> 外文会议>1st international conference on transportation information and safety 2011.;vol. 1. >Urban Traffic Collision Frequency Analysis and Modeling for Edmonton in Canada
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Urban Traffic Collision Frequency Analysis and Modeling for Edmonton in Canada

机译：加拿大埃德蒙顿城市交通碰撞频率分析与建模

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摘要

Consistently higher number of traffic collisions was observed on Friday as compared to other days of the week in Edmonton, Canada. The collision data was investigated and a collision prediction model was formulated based on three contributing factors: 1) number of daylight hours, 2) number of snowfall hours, and; 3) visibility on daily basis. A negative binomial (NB) model was formulated to establish a relation between the collision frequency and the independent variables. The model accuracy test results were found good. Statistical measures indicate that increased traffic collision is significantly related with increased number of snowfall hours. The proposed NB model could provide a realistic estimate of expected collision frequency for a particular day as a function of number of hours of daylight, number of hours of snowfall and visibility. It is expected that predicted collision frequencies will help the decision maker to quantify the traffic safety of Edmonton.
机译：与一周中其他时段相比，周五在加拿大埃德蒙顿，交通冲突的发生率一直较高。对碰撞数据进行了调查，并基于三个影响因素建立了碰撞预测模型：1）白天的小时数，2）降雪的小时数，以及3）每天可见度。建立了负二项式（NB）模型以建立碰撞频率与自变量之间的关系。发现模型准确性测试结果良好。统计指标表明，交通冲突的增加与降雪小时数的增加显着相关。拟议的NB模型可以根据白天的小时数，降雪的小时数和能见度，提供特定日期预期碰撞频率的实际估计。预计预测的碰撞频率将有助于决策者量化埃德蒙顿的交通安全。

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