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首页> 外文会议>SPE annual technical conference and exhibition;SPE 2002 >Toto, We’re Not In West Texas Anymore; A Challenging Examination of the Historical Global Crude Oil Production Capacity, Demand, Price and the Changing Elasticies
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Toto, We’re Not In West Texas Anymore; A Challenging Examination of the Historical Global Crude Oil Production Capacity, Demand, Price and the Changing Elasticies

机译：托托，我们已经不在西德克萨斯州了；具有挑战性的全球历史原油生产能力，需求，价格和变化的弹性的检验

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摘要

The basic fundamentals and drivers of changing supply andrndemand and their affect upon price have changed dramaticallyrnthrough time. Do you recall in the early 80’s when thernpopular belief was that crude would go to $100/bbl or in 1998rnwhen many believed that crude would return to below $10/bblrnfor the foreseeable future.rnThe results of this paper will better equip the readerrnto understand why neither of these beliefs were correct andrnnever will be. This paper will also provide a clearerrnunderstanding of the macro supply, demand and pricingrnenvironment to assist both the engineers and managers withrntheir critical long-term decision-making.rnThe drivers in both the short-term and the long-termrnperspectives of the global crude oil production capacity,rndemand and price differ. The short-term perspective, whichrntends to have a greater influence on our strategies andrndecisions, is typically driven by inventories and influenced byrnpolitics, perceptions, seasonal factors and supply disruptions,rnamong others.rnThe main focus of this paper is on the longer-termrnperspective or the macro level of global crude oil productionrncapacity, demand and pricing from 1945 to present. Inrnparticular, the changes in the elasticity of global demand,rnsupply and price are analyzed and highlighted. Briefly, thernregional supply and demand will also be examined.rnTrend analysis will include both artificial as well asrnnatural effects such as maturing fields, regulatory effects, andrnthe changing differential (excess capacity) between demandrnand supply. We will discuss the potential supply and pricerntrends assuming demand continues to increase at therncurrent rate.
机译：随时间变化的供求关系及其对价格的影响的基本原理和动因已经发生了巨大变化。您是否还记得在80年代初期，人们普遍认为原油价格会涨至100美元/桶，还是在1998年，当许多人认为原油价格在可预见的将来会跌至10美元/桶以下时。本文的结果将使读者更好地理解为什么两者都不这些信念是正确的，永远不会。本文还将提供对宏观供应，需求和定价环境的更清晰理解，以帮助工程师和管理人员进行关键的长期决策。rn全球原油生产的短期和长期前景的驱动因素容量，需求和价格不同。短期观点倾向于对我们的战略和决策产生更大的影响，通常是由库存驱动，并受到政治，观念，季节性因素和供应中断等因素的影响。本文的主要重点是长期观点或从1945年至今的全球原油产量，需求和价格的宏观水平。特别是，分析并强调了全球需求，供应和价格弹性的变化。简要地，还将研究区域供求。趋势分析将包括人为的和自然的影响，例如成熟领域，监管影响以及需求和供应之间变化的差异（产能过剩）。假设需求以当前速度持续增长，我们将讨论潜在的供应和价格趋势。

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