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Retrospective Simulation of Oil Demand and Crude Oil Production. A Basis for Crude Oil Prices Scenarios

机译：石油需求与原油产量的回顾性模拟。原油价格情景的基础

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A simple system-dynamic model of the world crude oil market is presented. To forecast the crude oil price, a simulation approach is chosen, and a simulation model of the world crude oil market has been developed. To establish empirical credibility of the model, bits and pieces of it have been tested against time series data. This was done through a trial and error process, where model structure and parameters were adjusted to give the best possible fit to history. A few oil price scenarios are presented. These scenarios illustrate some advantages of the simulation approach. With a quantitative model comprehending important aspects of the world crude oil market, it is possible to calculate consistent price and volume scenarios, based on varying sets of assumptions regarding market structure and the development of exogenous variables. 15 figures. (ERA citation 12:047145)

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作者
Haaberg, T.;
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年度 1985
页码 1-51
总页数 51
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类工业技术;
关键词
Petroleum; Demand; Forecasting; Market; Mathematical Models; Prices; Production; Simulation;

机译：石油;需求;预测;市场;数学模型;价格;生产;模拟;

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Retrospective Simulation of Oil Demand and Crude Oil Production. A Basis for Crude Oil Prices Scenarios

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