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首页> 外文会议>2007 International Conference on Manufacturing amp; Service Operations Management (MSOM 2007) >Identifying the Critical Patient: Finding the Balance between Undertriage and Overtriage
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Identifying the Critical Patient: Finding the Balance between Undertriage and Overtriage

机译：识别危重病人：在未成年人和过度女性之间找到平衡

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Obviously, the questions we have raised in the preceding two paragraphs are not easy to answer. First of all, for obvious reasons, it is simply not possible to perform repeated experimentswiththeactualsystem, collectdata, andreachconclusions. Second, theproblem tself is hugely complicated and therefore it does not lend itself easily to mathematical analysis. We believe that simulation would be an essential tool for the analysis of such complex systems. However, simulation would be most useful if there is a hypothesis to test. Therefore, webelievethattheidealapproachtoinvestigatecomplexproblemssuchaspatient triage is to first use simple mathematical models that capture the essence of the problem and generate some insights from these models. The generality of these insights then needs to be tested using extensive simulation models. We consider three di?erent single-server queueing models each di?ering in terms of the patientarrivalprocessandwaitingcostsassumed. ModelsIandIIIconsiderascenariowhere new patients will arrive (or be transported) to a hospital over a very long time horizon as a result of a major attack or a series of attacks. Model II considers a scenario where as a result of a single incident, there are a finite number of patients waiting for treatment. In Section 2, we describe our decision model for patient classification. In Sections 3, 4, and 5, we present some of our results for Models I, II, and III, respectively.
机译：显然，我们在前两段中提出的问题不容易回答。首先，出于明显的原因，根本不可能使用实际的系统，收集数据和到达结论进行重复实验。其次，问题本身非常复杂，因此不容易进行数学分析。我们认为，仿真将是分析此类复杂系统的重要工具。但是，如果要进行假设检验，则模拟将是最有用的。因此，我们认为，研究诸如患者分类等复杂问题的理想方法是首先使用简单的数学模型来捕获问题的实质，并从这些模型中得出一些见解。然后，需要使用广泛的仿真模型来测试这些见解的一般性。我们考虑了三种不同的单服务器排队模型，每种模型在患者到达过程和等待成本方面均有所不同。 I型和III型考虑了一个场景，在该场景中，由于重大袭击或一系列袭击，新患者将在很长的时间内到达（或被运送到）医院。模型II考虑了一种情况，即由于一次事件而导致有限数量的患者在等待治疗。在第2节中，我们描述了用于患者分类的决策模型。在第3、4和5节中，我们分别介绍了模型I，II和III的一些结果。

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