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首页> 外文会议>2012 Conference on Power amp; Energy >Dynamic transverse correction method of middle and long term energy forecasting based on statistic of forecasting errors
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Dynamic transverse correction method of middle and long term energy forecasting based on statistic of forecasting errors

机译：基于预测误差统计的中长期能源预测动态横向校正方法

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摘要

Based on statistic of forecasting errors, a correction model of middle and long term energy forecasting is proposed. The correction steps are also presented. The factors that influence intending load energy are classified into three categories, long-term factors, middle-factors and short-term factors. According to forecasting errors variation amplitude, high and low error sections are also divided out. So there are six combinations between the load influence factor types and high-low error sections. By the analysis and statistic of history forecasting errors, the six error correction factors value are calculated dynamically. Then assign different weights to the correction factors, the forecasting error value of forecasting model for the next forecast period is gained. The validity and practicability of the proposed method are tested with the actual data.
机译：基于预测误差的统计量，提出了中长期能源预测的修正模型。还介绍了校正步骤。影响预期负荷能量的因素分为三类：长期因素，中间因素和短期因素。根据预测误差的变化幅度，还可以分为高误差部分和低误差部分。因此，负载影响因素类型和高低误差部分之间有六个组合。通过对历史预测误差的分析和统计，可以动态计算出六个误差校正因子的值。然后为校正因子分配不同的权重，得到下一个预测期的预测模型的预测误差值。实际数据验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。

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