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首页> 外文会议>2012 IEEE 5th International conference on management engineering amp; technology of statistics >The Solution of the Delay of Water Shortage in System Dynamics Modeling for Water Management
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The Solution of the Delay of Water Shortage in System Dynamics Modeling for Water Management

机译：水资源管理系统动力学建模中缺水延迟的解决方案

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To make the system dynamics model for the research of water management present the relationship between the water shortages and the development of social and economy accurately,this paper analyzed the causes of the man-made delay of water shortages in system dynamics model on the base of analyzing the calculation principle of system dynamics model,modified the model,and analyzed the key parameters and the errors in original model.And finally,this paper compared the two models by the simulation of some dates.The results showed that the errors caused by the man-made delay of water shortages depends on the sensitive of the development of social and economy on water shortage,water shortages the change of water shortage and the duration of water shortage.Eliminating the man-made delay of water shortages can reduce unnecessary errors in the policy researches of water resource management.
机译：为了使水资源管理研究的系统动力学模型能够准确地反映出水资源短缺与社会经济发展之间的关系，本文在系统动力学模型的基础上，分析了人为地造成水资源短缺的原因。分析了系统动力学模型的计算原理，对模型进行了修改，并对原始模型中的关键参数和误差进行了分析。最后，通过对某些数据的仿真比较，比较了两个模型。人为延迟缺水取决于社会和经济发展对缺水，缺水的变化以及缺水持续时间的敏感性。消除人为延迟缺水可以减少水资源短缺的错误。水资源管理的政策研究。

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