Determining the Phases and Duration of Business Cycle in China Economy

机译：确定中国经济中商业周期的阶段和持续时间

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This paper employs an analytic framework, which combines TAR model and Bayesian estimation to analyze business cycle of China. The results show that if economic growth is relatively high and going to become persistent, then an economic slump will come subsequently. As for the duration of business cycle, we conclude that the phase of low growth does not last long, however, when the economy is growing at a reasonable high speed, this phase is sustainable.

机译：本文采用了一个分析框架，结合了TAR模型和贝叶斯估计来分析中国的商业周期。结果表明，如果经济增长相对较高并且将持续下去，那么随后将出现经济不景气。对于商业周期的持续时间，我们得出结论，低增长阶段不会持续很长时间，但是，当经济以合理的高速增长时，该阶段是可持续的。

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《2012 Second International Conference on Business Computing and Global Informatization.》|2012年|p.339- 342|共4页
会议地点 Shanghai(CN);Shanghai(CN)
作者
Lin Haitao;
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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类自动信息理论;自动信息理论;
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Determining the Phases and Duration of Business Cycle in China Economy

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