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首页> 外文会议>2013 Proceedings of PICMET '13: Technology Management in the IT-Driven Services >Integrated utilization of production system models for scenario-based environmental assessment of energy technology promotion strategies: A case in electric vehicles in Taiwan
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Integrated utilization of production system models for scenario-based environmental assessment of energy technology promotion strategies: A case in electric vehicles in Taiwan

机译：综合利用生产系统模型进行基于情景的能源技术推广战略环境评估：以台湾电动汽车为例

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摘要

In this paper, a prototype of scenario-based environmental assessment framework of energy-related technology roadmaps is demonstrated using a case study with particular focus on introduction of electric vehicles (EV). Taiwan plans to promote EV-related industries, setting a quantitative target for introduction to its domestic market. Replacement of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines by EVs will increase electricity demand, which is closely coupled with emission of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. On the other hand, it can contribute positively in removing mobile source of pollutants as well as in load balancing of the power grid. Concurrently, introduction of EV reduces gasoline demand, which requires a shift in the operation of petrochemical industry. Power mix optimization model, consequential model for petrochemical industry, and scenario models for vehicles use and replacement are used in an integrated manner to comprehensively assess abovementioned contributions together with other major factors such as nuclear reactor operation, and promotion of renewable energy and other energy saving technologies. Findings from conducting this case study are summarized for the further development of this framework that aims at providing a common platform for evaluating roadmaps into an integrated picture to discuss their effectiveness being aware of interactions among the technologies.
机译：在本文中，通过案例研究展示了基于情景的能源相关技术路线图环境评估框架的原型，该案例研究的重点是电动汽车（EV）的引入。台湾计划促进与电动汽车相关的产业，并设定量化目标以引入其国内市场。电动汽车取代由内燃机驱动的车辆将增加电力需求，这与温室气体和其他污染物的排放紧密相关。另一方面，它在消除移动污染物来源以及电网负载平衡方面可以发挥积极作用。同时，电动汽车的引入减少了汽油需求，这需要改变石化工业的运营。结合使用动力混合优化模型，石化行业的结果模型以及车辆使用和更换的情景模型，以综合评估上述贡献以及其他主要因素，例如核反应堆运行，促进可再生能源和其他节能技术。总结了进行此案例研究的发现，以进一步完善此框架，该框架旨在为评估路线图提供一个通用平台，从而将路线图评估为一个综合图片，从而在了解技术之间相互作用的情况下讨论其有效性。

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