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首页> 外文会议>The 7th China-Japan-Korea joint symposium on optimization of structural and mechanical systems >Bayesian Reliability Analysis of the Solid Rocket Motor
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Bayesian Reliability Analysis of the Solid Rocket Motor

机译：固体火箭发动机的贝叶斯可靠性分析

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摘要

Reliability evaluation of critical systems such as rocker motors is generally a difficult and costly task in terms of the real testing.In this case, numerical analysis technique that can predict the reliability at the early stage of design can be a viable solution, from which possible design improvements to attain higher reliability can be made in a fast manner.In this study, reliability analysis procedure is developed for a solid rocket motor, in which the failure probabilities of the ballistic performance and structural safety are evaluated.In the design parameters, probabilistic information is given either from the previous knowledge or by the direct measurements.In the latter case, influences of the statistical uncertainties due to the insufficient data are considered using the Bayesian approach, in which the probability itself is treated as a random variable of a beta distribution conditional on the provided data.Double loop of reliability analyses are conducted for this, in which the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Kriging Dimension Reduction Method (KDRM) are used to construct the PDF of the failure probability.After all, the confidence bounds of the failure probability (or reliability) are obtained, which represent our degree of belief conditional on the provided data.
机译：就实际测试而言，对翘板电机等关键系统的可靠性评估通常是一项艰巨而昂贵的任务，在这种情况下，可以在设计初期预测可靠性的数值分析技术将是可行的解决方案。本研究为固体火箭发动机开发了可靠性分析程序，评估了弹道性能和结构安全性的失效概率。在设计参数中，概率是信息既可以从先前的知识中获得，也可以通过直接测量获得。在后一种情况下，使用贝叶斯方法考虑由于数据不足而导致的统计不确定性的影响，其中概率本身被视为beta的随机变量根据提供的数据进行分布。为此进行了可靠性分析的双循环，其中运用一阶可靠性方法（FORM）和Kriging降维方法（KDRM）来构建失效概率的PDF，毕竟获得了失效概率（或可靠性）的置信区间，代表了我们的信念程度以提供的数据为条件。

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