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Multiple Trend Breaks and Unit Root Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from China's GDP(1952-2006)

机译：多重趋势突破和单位根假说：来自中国GDP的经验证据（1952-2006）

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Whether shocks to macroeconomic time series should be regarded as permanent or temporary has been an ongoing debate. Under the unit root hypothesis random shocks have a permanent effect on the system, and the alternative is that fluctuations are transitory. We apply the ADF test on the real GDP series of China from 1952 to 2006 by allowing for the possibility of two exogenous break points happened in 1961 and 1989 respectively. We find more evidence against the unit root hypothesis, meaning that the shocks on China's economy system are transitory except some significant events like the Great Natural Disaster in 1961 and the economy of China always grows around a stable trend path.

机译：是否应该将对宏观经济时间序列的冲击视为永久性还是暂时性，一直是一个持续的辩论。在单位根假设下，随机冲击对系统具有永久性影响，而替代方案是波动是暂时的。我们通过对1952年至2006年中国实际GDP序列进行ADF检验，考虑到分别在1961年和1989年发生两个外生断裂点的可能性。我们发现有更多的证据反对单位根假说，这意味着对中国经济体系的冲击是短暂的，除了一些重大事件（如1961年的自然灾害），而且中国经济始终围绕稳定的趋势路径增长。

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来源
《Advances in neural networks-ISNN 2009》|2009年|P.993-999|共7页
会议地点 Wuhan(CN);Wuhan(CN)
作者
Shusheng Li; Zhao-hui Liang;
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作者单位

College of Economics, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin, China Institute of Econometrics, Nankai University, Tianjin, China;

rnCollege of Economics, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin, China;

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会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类计算技术、计算机技术;
关键词
unit root; multiple trend breaks; ADF test;

机译：单位根多个趋势突破； ADF测试;

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机译：中国省级人均实际GDP不稳定吗？来自多个趋势突破单元根检验的证据
2. Multiple Breaks, Terms of Trade Shocks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis for African Per Capita Real GDP [J] . DIEGO ROMERO-AVILA World Development . 2009,第6期

机译：非洲人均实际GDP的多重中断，贸易冲击条件和单位根假设
3. New evidence on breaking trend functions in real GDPs from Great China Economic Area [J] . Hong Hui, Chen Naiwei Applied economics letters . 2017,第10a12期

机译：大中华经济区实际GDP突破趋势函数的新证据
4. Multiple Trend Breaks and Unit Root Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from China's GDP(1952-2006) [C] . Shusheng Li, Zhao-hui Liang International Symposium on Neural Networks . 2009

机译：多种趋势休息和单位根本假设：来自中国GDP的经验证据（1952-2006）
5. Panel unit root tests under the null hypothesis of stationarity and confirmatory analysis with applications to PPP and the convergence hypothesis. [D] . Choi, Chi-Young. 2000

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7. Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence [O] . Anindya Banerjee, Robin L. Lumsdaine, James H. Stock 100

机译：单位根和趋势突破假设的递归和连续测试：理论和国际证据

Multiple Trend Breaks and Unit Root Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from China's GDP(1952-2006)

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