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首页> 外文会议>American Society of Civil Engineers(ASCE) International Conference on Pipeline Engineering and Construction v.2; 20030713-20030716; Baltimore,MD; US >Geotechnical Risk Assessment: Estimating Slope Failure Probability
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Geotechnical Risk Assessment: Estimating Slope Failure Probability

机译：岩土工程风险评估：估算边坡破坏概率

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The TransCanada Pipelines Ltd. (TCPL) mainline system carries natural gas from the Alberta/Saskatchewan border to delivery points near the Quebec/Vermont border. The system contains pipelines that traverse approximately 4,000 kilometres (2,500 miles) of terrain and delivers about 2,900 Bcf of gas per year. As part of the integrity program this system has been subjected to a geotechnical hazard identification and assessment program over the last several years. The geotechnical hazard assessment process has identified hazardous sites and specific studies at these sites have been undertaken. TCPL has recently begun a transition from performing Hazard Management to an overall Risk Management approach for pipeline integrity. As part of this process TCPL required that a geotechnical risk methodology be developed to analyze the risk posed to the pipeline due to landslides. Therefore a new landslide failure probability estimation process was developed to complete this program. The failure probability estimation process developed considered one geotechnical hazard, a landslide of sufficient size that it would affect the pipeline. The estimation procedure used to assess the various sites was a "quantitative risk assessment procedure" (QRA). The QRA is a quantification of a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). The QRA process allows assessment and ranking of the likelihood of failure and/or the risks of various components within a system. The QRA methodology is a powerful screening tool that highlights areas of concern at any given site and allows comparison between sites. The landslide failure probability quantified during this process is then comparable to other risks to pipeline integrity. The elemental failure modes for sliding were identified and ranked in the QRA based on the landforms and geological conditions in which the pipeline is located. Two failure modes: a simple slide and earthflow failures were identified and evaluated. The life time failure probability was determined by assessing the potential causes of the slide. Each potential cause or sign that movement was occurring was identified and assigned a subjective probability that the individual cause would trigger a movement large enough to affect the pipeline. This was accomplished subjectively by an expert team assembled for this purpose.
机译：TransCanada Pipelines Ltd.（TCPL）主线系统将天然气从艾伯塔省/萨斯喀彻温省边境运送到魁北克/佛蒙特州边境附近的交货点。该系统包含穿越约4,000公里（2,500英里）地形的管道，每年输送约2,900 Bcf的天然气。作为完整性计划的一部分，该系统在过去几年中经历了岩土工程危害识别和评估计划。岩土危害评估过程已确定了危险场所，并已在这些场所进行了具体研究。 TCPL最近已开始从执行危害管理过渡到用于管道完整性的整体风险管理方法。作为此过程的一部分，TCPL要求开发一种岩土工程风险方法，以分析由于滑坡而对管道造成的风险。因此，开发了一种新的滑坡破坏概率估算程序来完成该程序。制定的故障概率估算过程考虑了一种岩土工程危害，即一种足以影响管道的滑坡。用于评估各个站点的评估程序是“定量风险评估程序”（QRA）。 QRA是对失效模式和影响分析（FMEA）的量化。 QRA过程允许对系统内各种组件的故障可能性和/或风险进行评估和排名。 QRA方法是一种功能强大的筛选工具，可突出显示任何给定站点上的关注区域，并允许在站点之间进行比较。这样，在此过程中量化的滑坡破坏概率就可以与管道完整性的其他风险相提并论。根据管道所在的地形和地质条件，确定了滑动的基本破坏模式并在QRA中进行了排序。两种故障模式：简单的滑动故障和泥石流故障被识别和评估。通过评估滑动的潜在原因来确定使用寿命失效概率。识别出发生移动的每个潜在原因或迹象，并为其分配一个主观概率，即个别原因将触发足以影响管道的移动。这是由为此目的组成的专家小组主观完成的。

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