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首页> 外文学位 >Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natural and Cut Slopes: Measuring Uncertainty in the Estimated Risks and Proposed Framework for Developing Risk Evaluation Criteria.
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Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natural and Cut Slopes: Measuring Uncertainty in the Estimated Risks and Proposed Framework for Developing Risk Evaluation Criteria.

机译：天然和坡度的定量风险评估：测量估计风险的不确定性以及制定风险评估标准的拟议框架。

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摘要

Understanding and limiting the risks inherent to natural and cut slopes are now recognized to be a priority in achieving an acceptable quality of life. Various methods of risk management that have been proposed in the last three decades have evolved into a general framework for landslide risk management. In particular, quantitative risk assessments can assist in communicating risks. They also provide a clear and systematic framework to analyze slope failure processes, from origin, to movement, to consequence; and the effect of different remedial works and strategies.;The full potential of the risk management framework is best met with the establishment of risk evaluation criteria. The other objective of this work focuses on the development of risk evaluation criteria. It is not the intention of this work to develop case specific criteria, as this responsibility should lie with owners and regulators, but to propose a framework for developing the criteria, where the risk analyst takes an active role.;A summary of the state of practice for quantitative risk assessments is included as part of the thesis. The work on the evaluation of uncertainty related to the estimated risks and a proposed framework for developing risk evaluation criteria are then presented. The last two chapters of the thesis present a summary of the research results, conclusions and proposed future research.;Some of the challenges and perceived limitations of quantitative risk assessments are related to the necessary input of expert opinion when estimating the risk levels in a quantitative manner. One objective of this work is the systematic assessment of the uncertainties in the estimated values of risk. Quantitative risk analyses are carried out for two case histories, where population of the analyses input parameters is done as probability distributions rather than fixed values. The probability distributions of the input parameters cover the range of values believed realistic for each input parameter. The risk is then estimated through a Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the outcome of the analysis is a probability distribution of the estimated risk. This methodology shows the potential for evaluating the uncertainties related to risk estimations.
机译：现在，认识到并限制自然坡度和开挖坡度固有的风险是实现可接受的生活质量的优先事项。在过去的三十年中提出的各种风险管理方法已经发展成为滑坡风险管理的一般框架。特别是，定量风险评估可以帮助传达风险。它们还提供了一个清晰，系统的框架来分析从源头，运动到结果的边坡破坏过程。建立风险评估标准可以最好地发挥风险管理框架的全部潜力。这项工作的另一个目标集中在制定风险评估标准上。这项工作的目的不是制定案例特定的标准，因为这种责任应该由所有者和监管者承担，而是要提出一个制定标准的框架，风险分析师应在其中扮演积极的角色。定量风险评估的实践也包括在内。然后介绍了与估计风险相关的不确定性评估工作，以及提出的制定风险评估标准的框架。论文的后两章总结了研究结果，结论和拟议的未来研究。定量风险评估的一些挑战和局限性与估计定量风险水平时专家意见的必要输入有关。方式。这项工作的目标之一是对风险估计值的不确定性进行系统评估。针对两个案例历史记录进行了定量风险分析，其中分析输入参数的填充是作为概率分布而不是固定值进行的。输入参数的概率分布涵盖了每个输入参数的实际值范围。然后，通过蒙特卡洛模拟技术估算风险，分析结果是估算风险的概率分布。这种方法论显示了评估与风险估计有关的不确定性的潜力。

著录项

  • 作者

    Macciotta, Renato.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Alberta (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Alberta (Canada).;
  • 学科 Engineering Geological.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 211 p.
  • 总页数 211
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 老年病学;
  • 关键词

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